Trading thoughts update

Trading thoughts can now be found here http://loneinvestor.blogspot.com/. Strategies are up to date and updated regularly, with insights and commentary.

Ever feel like there is a nag watching every move you make and telling you it was wrong? I lived that way for 15 years. And now the market seems intent on making sure I don't miss it too much.

The market still looks overall healthy.

Another stock of mine dropped like a lead balloon, make that 4 for the week and WYNN is heading that way tomorrow. The others have been BEAS, CDE, TS, OSK. Why oh why do we think this is interesting.

Bernake is a bumbling moron compared to Sir Alan.

05/03/06

Providing daily analysis of the equities market, is like providing minute by minute updates of your intestinal tract. Not much is worth reporting, not much is worth get excited over, and by the time you know about the big events they are already over, and there was not anything you could have done to prevent the outcome.

Traders jumped off the CDE and OSK train hard today while it was still moving full steam ahead. OSK was at least earnings related.

5/02/06

Twas the best of times, twas the worst of times. If your portfolio is in the manly industries like oil, mining, cement, railroad, heavy construction, you like today. If you are in software, internet, semis, you did not. Rough hands are having a beer, soft hands are being wrung.

Look for more of the same, the sell-off in the last hour was wussy.

Portfolio stands like this;
BEAS
BHP
CDE
CRH
CSX
FDC
FLR
GSF
MSM
NTES
OSK
PALM
PNK
STM
TS
WYNN

All longs, no time to babysit shorts.

04/25/06

As with raising some children my stocks needed to be less attention needy. I re-structured myportfoli, so I willnot have to babysit it so often during the day.

After watching live charts for three motnhs I have concluded it is a bunch of random hogwash. The at home trader simply does not have the info and/or tools to jump on board at the slightest hiccup. So I am taking a longer term apporach to trading, as placing my time in my business is certainly more profitable now and I feel it will pay off in the longer term exponentailly.

Covered AMAT, bought FLR, BEAS, PALM, CRH, BHP. This gives me one short EBN and the longs in addition to those above are CDE, FDC, GSF, MSM, OSK, DUK, CDE, PNK, WYNN, STM. All stocks I can live with for awhile at least.

04/25/06

Sold AA, because of being over weighted in basic stuff, sold FD on profit taking, covered ARLP, because it was clearly looking to go higher, and have had quite enough being burned by hot metal. Was going to sell SIL after it fell through 23, but will hold it to see if it bounces off of 22.

Bought OSK after the market firmed around noon for you east timers. The pattern has a nice pinch down, and is bonking its head back to the upper band, which might just give way to pressure and resume its climb. Sold short ECA, because of over sold, and profit taking in the sector, also at a resistance level, and it worked very hard to get there. Shorted BEN for being over bought in a profit taking sector, while it is clearly not anxious to make new highs. Shorted CCI for leveling off now for 4 days, this could be misconstrued as consolidation, and perhaps it will go higher, but the market probably won't jet up from here.


Pretty much a technical day, a day to get the market psychology organized, like a formerly chaotic storm, the market too needs to form an eye, to move in one direction or the other. If you are looking towards the market for any kind of emotional fulfillment whatsoever, other than gamemanship, than you are setting yourself up for a fall. And the problem with this game, is that it holds all the cards, and opens and closes the table when it wants to. Of course you can always take a break, but you are unlikely to want to, during a losing streak when you need one. Nor are you likely to during a winning streak when you fear losing more opportunity.

The real value of reading this blog is for a pinch of wisdom like is sprinkled throughout the paragraph above. Can't any hack write their opinion on a daily basis?

4/24/06

For those of you dreaming of being able to trade full time some day, like I had for years, let me tell you one thing, it is a testament of fortitude. It is not a mission of glamour, it is a stern taskmaster that is impossible to please, and it is wearying.You wake up with your research in place, your patterns confirmed and voila, on a dime the world changes and everyone seems on board except you.

The portfolio has not seen a new high since January, and seems hard pressed to get out of its funk. I paid dearly for the lesson learned once again I might add, of having too many stocks in one sector heading the same way. I was short mining and oil stocks, and added to that position everytime there was the slightest edging, and it creamed me hard. I was also short semi conductors three times over for the same result. It is hard not to push in times of urgency and it is hard not to keep stats in mind like your all time highs, your average trade etc.

At this time I am ceasing publishing that info on Sunday's mostly because it is time consuming, I have other business interests that keep my on the computer for large chunks of the day, and the tediousness of posting weekly results is just too much. Plus I feel it is the least valuable info on this blog, I will update quarterly, and announce trades as they come.

Dow-Dow is at a logical over bought spot, however, it has been reticent to correct on this pattern all year. There is also signs of strengthening. And with the strength Friday on the Nasdaq's weakness, it might just rally up and bring the Nasdaq back with it.

Nasdaq-At the 20 day moving average, it has not correct below that for five days, although it might spend this week waffling, there is no indication that higher highs are not in the offing.

OSX-Riding the upper band, the slight hitch appears to be over, as it steams ahead.

SOX-Semis never got untracked, this leg appears tired, although it could revamp.

XAU-Is it making a double top, are going forth and prospering?

AA-Appears to be heading higher, although there might be some consolidation, the bands are spread apart fairly well right here.

AMAT-This short needs to break off that upper band, and re-visit the lower one.

ARLP-will be watching this short and dumping on further strength.

CGA- A nice pinch down here, should lead to a new break out in the coming week or two.

CSCO-Riding that lower band, it appears to be turning as well, a dump at 20.5

DUK-A nice recovery off the lower band, this is the way a trade is supposed to work.

FD-A bit of resistance if it resumes here it could go higher, if it continues to stall it will be profit taking time.

FDC-corrected off the top, but appears to have some juice left in it.

GSF-Increased interest, riding that upper band.

MSM_Pinch down here, like a spring being smashed, full of potential energy.

NTES-At support.

PNK-Hold

SIL-If history is any predictor, up is the way to go here.

STM-Increased volume, can it breached.

WYNN-Trends don't get easier to decipher.