Living on Large Caps

Trading thoughts update

2009-01-09T09:22:00.000-08:00

Trading thoughts can now be found here http://loneinvestor.blogspot.com/. Strategies are up to date and updated regularly, with insights and commentary.

2006-05-03T16:36:00.000-07:00

Ever feel like there is a nag watching every move you make and telling you it was wrong? I lived that way for 15 years. And now the market seems intent on making sure I don't miss it too much.

The market still looks overall healthy.

Another stock of mine dropped like a lead balloon, make that 4 for the week and WYNN is heading that way tomorrow. The others have been BEAS, CDE, TS, OSK. Why oh why do we think this is interesting.

Bernake is a bumbling moron compared to Sir Alan.

05/03/06

2006-05-02T10:34:00.000-07:00

Providing daily analysis of the equities market, is like providing minute by minute updates of your intestinal tract. Not much is worth reporting, not much is worth get excited over, and by the time you know about the big events they are already over, and there was not anything you could have done to prevent the outcome.

Traders jumped off the CDE and OSK train hard today while it was still moving full steam ahead. OSK was at least earnings related.

5/02/06

2006-05-01T18:34:00.000-07:00

Twas the best of times, twas the worst of times. If your portfolio is in the manly industries like oil, mining, cement, railroad, heavy construction, you like today. If you are in software, internet, semis, you did not. Rough hands are having a beer, soft hands are being wrung.

Look for more of the same, the sell-off in the last hour was wussy.

Portfolio stands like this;
BEAS
BHP
CDE
CRH
CSX
FDC
FLR
GSF
MSM
NTES
OSK
PALM
PNK
STM
TS
WYNN

All longs, no time to babysit shorts.

04/25/06

2006-04-26T08:49:00.000-07:00

As with raising some children my stocks needed to be less attention needy. I re-structured myportfoli, so I willnot have to babysit it so often during the day.

After watching live charts for three motnhs I have concluded it is a bunch of random hogwash. The at home trader simply does not have the info and/or tools to jump on board at the slightest hiccup. So I am taking a longer term apporach to trading, as placing my time in my business is certainly more profitable now and I feel it will pay off in the longer term exponentailly.

Covered AMAT, bought FLR, BEAS, PALM, CRH, BHP. This gives me one short EBN and the longs in addition to those above are CDE, FDC, GSF, MSM, OSK, DUK, CDE, PNK, WYNN, STM. All stocks I can live with for awhile at least.

04/25/06

2006-04-24T17:24:00.000-07:00

Sold AA, because of being over weighted in basic stuff, sold FD on profit taking, covered ARLP, because it was clearly looking to go higher, and have had quite enough being burned by hot metal. Was going to sell SIL after it fell through 23, but will hold it to see if it bounces off of 22.

Bought OSK after the market firmed around noon for you east timers. The pattern has a nice pinch down, and is bonking its head back to the upper band, which might just give way to pressure and resume its climb. Sold short ECA, because of over sold, and profit taking in the sector, also at a resistance level, and it worked very hard to get there. Shorted BEN for being over bought in a profit taking sector, while it is clearly not anxious to make new highs. Shorted CCI for leveling off now for 4 days, this could be misconstrued as consolidation, and perhaps it will go higher, but the market probably won't jet up from here.

Pretty much a technical day, a day to get the market psychology organized, like a formerly chaotic storm, the market too needs to form an eye, to move in one direction or the other. If you are looking towards the market for any kind of emotional fulfillment whatsoever, other than gamemanship, than you are setting yourself up for a fall. And the problem with this game, is that it holds all the cards, and opens and closes the table when it wants to. Of course you can always take a break, but you are unlikely to want to, during a losing streak when you need one. Nor are you likely to during a winning streak when you fear losing more opportunity.

The real value of reading this blog is for a pinch of wisdom like is sprinkled throughout the paragraph above. Can't any hack write their opinion on a daily basis?

4/24/06

2006-04-23T07:24:00.000-07:00

For those of you dreaming of being able to trade full time some day, like I had for years, let me tell you one thing, it is a testament of fortitude. It is not a mission of glamour, it is a stern taskmaster that is impossible to please, and it is wearying.You wake up with your research in place, your patterns confirmed and voila, on a dime the world changes and everyone seems on board except you.

The portfolio has not seen a new high since January, and seems hard pressed to get out of its funk. I paid dearly for the lesson learned once again I might add, of having too many stocks in one sector heading the same way. I was short mining and oil stocks, and added to that position everytime there was the slightest edging, and it creamed me hard. I was also short semi conductors three times over for the same result. It is hard not to push in times of urgency and it is hard not to keep stats in mind like your all time highs, your average trade etc.

At this time I am ceasing publishing that info on Sunday's mostly because it is time consuming, I have other business interests that keep my on the computer for large chunks of the day, and the tediousness of posting weekly results is just too much. Plus I feel it is the least valuable info on this blog, I will update quarterly, and announce trades as they come.

Dow-Dow is at a logical over bought spot, however, it has been reticent to correct on this pattern all year. There is also signs of strengthening. And with the strength Friday on the Nasdaq's weakness, it might just rally up and bring the Nasdaq back with it.

Nasdaq-At the 20 day moving average, it has not correct below that for five days, although it might spend this week waffling, there is no indication that higher highs are not in the offing.

OSX-Riding the upper band, the slight hitch appears to be over, as it steams ahead.

SOX-Semis never got untracked, this leg appears tired, although it could revamp.

XAU-Is it making a double top, are going forth and prospering?

AA-Appears to be heading higher, although there might be some consolidation, the bands are spread apart fairly well right here.

AMAT-This short needs to break off that upper band, and re-visit the lower one.

ARLP-will be watching this short and dumping on further strength.

CGA- A nice pinch down here, should lead to a new break out in the coming week or two.

CSCO-Riding that lower band, it appears to be turning as well, a dump at 20.5

DUK-A nice recovery off the lower band, this is the way a trade is supposed to work.

FD-A bit of resistance if it resumes here it could go higher, if it continues to stall it will be profit taking time.

FDC-corrected off the top, but appears to have some juice left in it.

GSF-Increased interest, riding that upper band.

MSM_Pinch down here, like a spring being smashed, full of potential energy.

NTES-At support.

PNK-Hold

SIL-If history is any predictor, up is the way to go here.

STM-Increased volume, can it breached.

WYNN-Trends don't get easier to decipher.

04/20/06

2006-04-20T06:17:00.000-07:00

Sold MRO, coverd CVX. Bought FD, NTES.

Market behave drather predictability yesterday, small range, slight higher high, bodes well for continuation later, even if it stall here.

04/19/06

2006-04-18T20:00:00.000-07:00

Covered a plethora today all for a loss, and yet again the lesson of spreading risks is a lesson unfollowed and expensive. Covered RTP,PD, SNDK, SNE, CCJ. Bought AA, PNK, MSM.

Strong day today. You didn't really need me to say that. Lost almost 2% at the get go, but if the rally bites some this could be profitable, although the last two weeks market action has left me rather fatigued and disillusioned.

You can be right and still have it cost you money.

Like TMIC, ARW, FD

04/18/06

2006-04-17T18:57:00.000-07:00

Covered MS, bought GG and GSF. Tomorrow will sell MRO on weakness and cover CCJ on strength.

Nothing really changed today, the markets did not make new short term lows, in fact they hit support and stopped falling. Like wise so did RTP, and PD on the reverse, they hit resistance and stopped. Will see tomorrow, the long term oil picture is not likely to improve and it is primarily psychological at this point. Iran is not going to stop heading towards nuclear technology nor or the Nigerian rebels going to suddenly love major oil. Hurricane season is going to come around, and everyone is just itching to bid that black gold up to unheard of levels. However, having said that, it could calm down for awhile and we could see a rally within the next week.

We are fast heading towards a bearish time of year, and the anticipated earnings could very well be already priced into the market. So any rally here is unlikely to push muchpast highs already seen for the year.

04/17/06

2006-04-16T19:16:00.000-07:00

Will update current positions hopefully tomorrow. Thursday was busy covered HAWK, MFE,SNPS and FNM. Bought CGA, GLW, CSCO and WYNN.

Was logical spot for market to rally. However now that earnings season is here, market will be more selective as stocks are re-evaluated. Stocks become more important for awhile than the macro issues.

Dow-looks like it might rally from here but needs to break through the failed rally of earlier this month or down ward pressure will likely continue later.

Nasdaq-Anything less than a higher high here bodes ominous for the rest of the month.

OSX-The bloom might be off this rose for awhile.

SOX-A little healthier than I would like given the shorts I have.

AMAT-A cover on strength through 18.6

ARLP-Late strength appears to be fading.

CCJ-Still cannot break that barrier, will hold short until it does.

CGA-Nice pinch down here, trend suggests higher highs to go.

CSCO-Have avoided this pattern in the past, as the last correction was out of line with trend, but a little bounce here is probable given the market condition.

CVX-A visit to the lower band soon?

GLW-A nice pinch down, with upward momentum.

MRO-See above.

MS-This market bellwether might get covered on strength.

PD-A little shaky here.

RTP-see above.

SIL-Weathering things well.

SNDK-66 is the limit.

SNE-Didn't hit the lower band...yet.

WYNN-Straight goes the arrow.

04/12/06

2006-04-12T17:54:00.000-07:00

Covered TSN today.

There have been worse entry's into the market than right here. There are many technical factors that look like we are close to the short term bottom, plus the Dow chart looks rather inviting. Having said that I have been early in most of the calls lately, and I do not see huge upside either. Many individual patterns have double tops, or have clearly broken recent uptrends significantly.

Might cover HAWK, SNPS tomorrow on strength. Buy candidates include GLW, WYNN, NUE. Trade without emotion, fear and greed, and your will trade better. The market is never wrong at any given moment just your expectations are. Have patience and confidence, and your trades will turn out better, than if you have fear and doubt. Make well thought out trades, and don't get shaken off your positions by irrational wobbles.

04/12/06

2006-04-11T20:02:00.000-07:00

Dow and Nasdaq look bearish still. The Dow has a failed rally to back up the pattern, internals are mixed, which actually is bearish. Japan is down again. In the portfolio TSN is close to being done, if it rallies might just collect profits, but given my trigger happy leanings, might just ride it out a ways further. Metals still healthy despite the last few days action there is definite support there. Although further profit taking might come into play if the bear trend continues.

04/11/06

2006-04-10T20:56:00.000-07:00

Sold AKZOY, SPG. Bought MRO, SIL. Monkey see monkey do, I guess.

The fact that the Dow failed to rally 'on schedule' last week, does not bode well for the pattern it has established to continue. Like all good things, they must come to an end. AA posted nice earnings today, as far as I can tell at least. But that plays into the whole inflation fear thing, which might be coming home to roost a little bit here. The fact that the Wall St. Journal published a story on bullishness and raising rates did nothing to quell the fear today, seems to show the that short term sentiment is leaning towards the bears. Japan right now is down, and so are futures.

There is some evidence of short term over sold as well, and the longer that continues and the market slides the more bearish the over tones could become. Nasdaq needs to break through 20 day moving average for some added fuel for the bears. The Dow had an inside day meaningful for two reason, it did not rally, nor did it make new lows.

Some fairly negative patterns in the portfolio, and the rest had inside days. Inside days show lack of conviction and are more comforting when you are short than when you are long.

2006-04-09T09:19:00.000-07:00

You will have to scan the 'current positions' post to see where we are as far as individual trades. Mostly short, predominantly short as a matter of fact. The sell off Friday was sharp, I am not seeing clear cut sings of a continuation Monday, but perhaps by Tuesday. Much of it may depend on early profit rumbles. Although I think until we see clear cut signs of the Fed's reversal of coarse, the highs we have seen lately are likely to stand put. Early April is very bullish in general, and May is bearish, followed by the usual lackluster summer. And then comes the fall sell-off before the winter rally into the new year. 2007 is nothing politically, Bush is done, so don't expect much in the way of tax cut legislation to boost the economy.

Wow, did he really off a whole year's prediction? Tear it up throw it away, nobody can predict tomorrow's weather with enough certainty to wager your hard earned deniro. A smart trader would have been much less invested in this market last two weeks than I was. I have had one speed lately and it is full bore balls to the wall, pedal to the medal. I learned around last Wednesday I was emotionally destroying myself and actually stopped watching the market with the vested interest of watching a loved ones EKG. I stayed tuned, but more or less stayed out.

Fridays sell off was large, there might be a bounce Monday.

Dow-Huge reversal day, on a failed rally. Looks bearish at least to touch the lower band, if it follows through from there, it could be a fairly large down turn ahead.

Nasdaq-Although technically the nasdaq is still hugging the upper band, one would have to be a moron to ignore the reversal day on Friday. Best prediction, tomorrow, an inside day with negative market internals, and then a continuation to the downside. Of course you know what I think about opinions and predictions. They are worthless at best and expensive at worst. All you can do is play the evidence right in front of you.

SOX-Nice rally, sometimes these formations are the start of something big, sometimes they are a last gasp. If you look there was a nice triple top going on, and this rally fell way short of that.

OSX-Given the nature of oil, so much of it is pure fundamental, and not as given to chart reading. However, it is showing a nice rally here. But showing some sings of retreating perhaps to the 20 day moving average.

XAU-See oil above.

Positions-

AKZOY-This long should show no more correction than here, or perhaps exiting is best bet.

AMAT-Reasonable to expect this short to revisit lower band.

ARLP-higher volume and a break out on a weak day, make this short a cove at 38+.

CCJ-Triple top failure, look for a lower band re-visit.

CVX-Overall trend really never budged, entered too early here, but should re-visit lower band.

FNM-One of the two profits open in the portfolio, should also re-visit lower band and then some.

HAWK-Could be new uptrend if it continues up from here, nice sell-off, but shows early rumblings of a new up leg.

MFE-If market continues to tank, this one will too.

MS-Look to at least moving average touch.

PD-New territory, might cover if it hits moving average.

RTP-See PD. This is why you do not short two stocks in one sector. DUH.

SNPS-Comfortable here, should tank some more.

SNE-Rallied on Japan and overall strength in sector, nothing spectacular, expect a lower band visit.

SPG-Not going to have much patience here. On this long.

TSN-Other open profit, see it heading lower.

Current Positions for 4/10

2006-04-09T08:36:00.000-07:00

CURRENT LONG OPEN POSITIONS
STOCK...............DATE...........PRICE....................
SPG................04/03/06........83.75
AKZOY.............04/04/06........53.82

*Means half the original stake has been liquidated.

CURRENT SHORT OPEN POSITIONS
DATE,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,STOCK.......................PRICE
03/20/06...............CVX.........................56.95
03/21/06...............MS..........................60.15
03/21/06...............RTP........................190.70
03/21/06...............PD..........................73.50
03/21/06...............HAWK........................12.71
03/27/06...............SNE.........................44.99
03/28/06...............AMAT........................17.44
03/28/06...............TSN.........................13.80
3/31/06...............SNDK.........................58.22
04/03/06..............CCJ..........................37.30
04/04/06..............ARLP.........................35.10
04/05/06..............SNPS.........................21.86
04/06/06..............FNM..........................53.65

OPEN POSITIONS: -8.6%
COMPLETED LONG POSITIONS THIS YEAR

STOCK .. DATE.......... PRICE....DATE SOLD ..SELL PRICE.....% ...DAYS HELD

NOV.......12/21/05......64.55.....01/06/06........68.42...............5.99...11
FD........12/08/05......67.35.....01/05/06........68.69...............1.99...28
ABX.......11/17/05......27.15.....01/10/06........29.38...............8.21...54
VLO.......01/04/06......53.60.....01/11/06........56.89...............6.14....7
ACL.......12/05/06.....143.46.....01/11/06.......135.59..............-5.49...37
BBD.......01/04/06......31.55.....01/12/06........32.37...............2.60....8
MCHP......01/06/06......33.10.....01/13/06........34.21...............3.35....7
MC........12/23/05......19.77.....01/17/06........21.36...............8.04...25
GS........01/10/06.....130.05.....01/17/06.......132.00...............1.50....7
*BRCM.....01/25/06......58.30.....01/27/06........69.69...............9.76....2
*CGA......01/24/06......11.15.....01/27.06........12.70...............8.29....3
COH.......01/10/06......34.00.....01/30/06........35.75...............5.14...20
STT.......01/19/06......59.00.....02/01/06........60.38...............2.33...13
AKZOY.....01/20/06......46.90.....02/02/06........49.09...............4.66...13
*CGA......01/24/06......11.15.....02/01/06........12.66...............6.32....8
*BRCM.....01/25/06......58.30.....01/30/06........67.70...............8.06....5
UPS.......12/22/05......77.00.....02/15/06........75.51..............-1.90...55
LOW.......01/11/06......65.91.....02/16/06........66.90...............1.50...36
NTAP......02/01/06......31.41.....02/16/06........33.84...............7.73...15
BBD.......02/07/06......37.08.....02/15/06........38.14...............2.85....8
CYH.......01/17/06......38.55.....02/21/06........38.23..............-0.83...35
MHS.......01/19/06......56.40.....02/21/06........56.77...............0.65...33
TMX.......01/25/06......24.00.....02/23/06........22.53..............-6.12...29
CX........02/15/06......59.67.....02/23/06........62.62...............4.94....8
CDE.......02/21/06.......5.25.....02/21/06.........5.423..............3.29....1
EMC.......01/05/06......13.98.....02/28/06........14.22...............1.79...54
NIPNY.....02/22/06.......6.10.....02/28/06.........6.1828.............1.32....6
SNDK......02/27/06......59.16.....02/27/06........61.14...............3.34....1
POZN......02/27/06......16.8558...03/01/06........17.4828.............3.71....4
FSL.......03/01/06......27.18.....03/01/06........27.69...............1.87....1
PAAS..... 03/02/06......23.05.....03/02/06........23.88...............3.60....1
BRCM......03/08/06......46.35.....03/08/06........46.86...............1.10....1
CAJ.......03/16/06......63.68.....03/17/06........64.25...............0.89....2
PG........03/08/06......61.02.....03/14/06........60.19..............-1.36....6
PNK.......02/28/06......28.12.....03/13/06........30.14...............7.18...14
GLW.......03/14/06......25.84.....03/16/06........27.91...............8.01....3
BBY.......03/08/06......53.94.....03/16/06........57.04...............5.74....8
RTP.......02/07/06.....207.88.....03/17/06.......191.91..............-7.68...38
WAG.......03/08/06......44.06.....03/16/06........45.25...............2.70....8
STT.......03/09/06......62.08.....03/17/06........62.98...............1.44....8
FSL.......03/09/06......26.50.....03/21/06........27.25...............2.83...12
BBL.......02/21/06......35.34.....03/20/06........34.46..............-2.55...28
CRYP......03/16/06......24.99.....03/23/06........25.15...............0.64....7
UMC.......12/27/05.......3.33.....03/30/06.........3.36...............0.90...94
PDS.......01/23/06......34.98.....03/27/06........32.35..............-7.5....63
ESV.......02/06/06......50.09.....03/27/06........49.54..............-1.09...49
FRE.......02/23/06......68.10.....03/28/06........63.59..............-6.62...33
SNDK......03/01/06......61.41.....03/29/06........58.78..............-4.28...30
BBY.......03/28/06......54.98.....03/29/06........55.55...............1.03....1
MCHP......03/02/06......36.43.....03/29/06........35.49..............-2.58...27
SNPS......03/02/06......22.30.....04/03/06........22.31...............0.04...31
VZ........03/13/06......34.65.....04/03/06........34.61..............-0.11...21
AMR.......04/03/06......27.27.....04/04/06........27.67...............1.47....1
TS........04/03/06......185.20....04/05/06.......189.78...............2.31....1
PCU.......04/05/06.......89.29....04/06/06........92.53...............3.62....1
CMVT......03/13/06.......29.07....04/03/06........23.42.............-19.43....21

Long Return for 2006
Winning trades 41
Average: %3.72
Losing trades 13
Average: %-4.98

Average Trade:1.6255%
Average Days Held: 18.2 (including non trading days)
Total Trades:54

COMPLETED SHORT POSITIONS THIS YEAR

STOCK .. DATE.......... PRICE....EXIT DATE ..EXIT PRICE.....% ...DAYS HELD

KBH......12/01/05.......69.21...01/03/06......73.00.........-5.47...34
CHB......01/13/06.......13.46...01/17/06......13.12..........2.52....4
MBT......01/18/06.......37.00...01/18/06......36.36..........1.46....1
CWTR.....01/08/06.......21.00...01/23/06......20.38..........2.95...15
CMX......01/13/06.......51.55...01/24/06......50.66..........1.72....9
DCX......01/18/06.......52.75...01/24/06......54.74.........-3.77....6
CNX......01/30/06.......72.65...02/03/06......70.13..........3.46....4
NSM......02/02/06.......28.34...02/02/06......27.56..........2.75....1
SNV......01/31/06.......27.77...02/06/06......26.98..........2.84....7
HBAN.....02/02/06.......22.99...02/08/06......23.07..........-.34....5
NSM......02/21/06.......27.88...02/22/06......27.42..........1.64....1
FPL......02/15/06.......41.36...03/03/06......40.84..........1.25...16
CHKP.....02/28/06.......21.65...02/08/06......21.1299........2.40....1
SNV......02/15/06.......27.65...03/08/06......27.57..........0.20...24
GOOG.....02/22/06......365.81...03/08/06.....355.10..........2.92...14
PBR......02/22/06.......89.51...02/28/06......87.93..........1.76...6
IBM......02/23/06.......80.73...03/09/06......81.11..........0.47...14
ERICY....02/23/06.......34.71...03/10/06......33.90..........2.33...15
TOL......02/28/06.......32.70...03/08/06......31.30..........4.28...9
DOW......03/02/06.......43.52...03/08/06......42.42..........2.52...6
CMCSA....03/06/06.......26.99...03/10/06......26.26..........2.70...4
AMP......03/20/06.......45.65...03/21/06......44.29..........2.98...1
DHI......03/20/06.......34.36...03/21/06......32.95..........4.10...1
GGP......03/31/06.......50.61...04/03/06......48.91..........3.36...4
CMCSA....03/20/06.......26.87...04/03/06......26.30..........2.12..14
AET......03/30/06.......50.11...04/04/06......48.51..........3.19...5

Short Return for 2006
Winning Trades: 23
Average trade: %2.41
Losing Trades: 3
Average Trade %-3.19

Average Trade: 1.76%
Averade Days Held: 8.44
Total Trades: 26

*MEANS HALF THE ORIGINAL STAKE WAS LIQUIDATED ON THIS DATE, THE RETURN THEREFORE WAS DIVIDED IN HALF FOR THE RETURN TO DATE CALCUALTIONS.

2006-04-05T13:05:00.000-07:00

Until further notice irrational unfettered optimism is epidemic in America's investing community. I certainly hope you are feeling it in your own pocketbook, if not buy a mining company their values increase roughly three percent per day. Today was the first day I turned off the monitors, and think I shall go back to end of the day analysis and trading.

I shall plan my strategy the evening before, and execute that and only that the next trading day. If the market unfolds differently than I had thought it would, than I will do nothing. But I will plan the exit points the night before, if realized fine, if not fine. I may buy or short based on the early morning trading only, I will not liquidate on the fly. The few dollars I have made doing that have been grossly over compensated with irrational trades that were aimed at getting back at the market.

The market has spanked me like a bad, bad boy, by a father who has lost his patience. Remember if you will, my article on portfolio building. If you have not read it, Google it, do not over play one industry. I am short four, count them four mining stocks. Two oil stocks, and two semiconductor stocks. Does that read like a who's who of hot stocks or not?

Down a full twelve percent from my high, like last October, I do not do well in trending markets. I have at least reclaimed my sanity, unlike those on Wall St. Who think this is one rosy scenario. I will hold my mining shorted stocks until the sure to happen crash of them, it may well be too late to reap a profit, but is there really any sense in throwing an inferno more fuel.

I sold GSF today, because in my panic it looked like oil was done, knowing full well the inventory reports were due. Also bought PCU, and might buy a housing stock tomorrow, TOL and KBH look OK.

The market shows no signs of heading south, there is no panic, just buying upon buying upon buying. Maybe some profit taking before weekend, but why, this is one damn fine time to be long the whole fricking thing. Ignore price of oil, price of commodities, rising interest rates, just buy. Like a woman with a gift card in a shoe store.

04/05/06

2006-04-04T17:21:00.000-07:00

Took some profits today in AMR, AET TS. Also bought AKZOY, and sold short ARLP. Since the obvious short signal did not materialize a week or so ago, at least not market wide, there has been nothing but conflicting signals.

S&P looks toppy, Nasdaq looks tired and has now left the upper band, the Dow has maintained a playable pattern, and is rallying on cue. There really is nothing to do except wait. Profit are not likely to run on long, so will take them when I see them. Bollinger Band touches, and over sold or over bought indicators are enough here. Unless there is a run on to the downside. Do not see much room upward, especially if the Nasdaq cannot re-up with the upper band.

It is a frustrating period for market players than like action. The market is not going to give to us, and after the April earnings season is unlikely to do much of anything exciting until The fall sell off.

There are a few mildly interesting patterns to buy, and some with more potential to short. All the action lately has been in the morning, with afternoons being flat.

04/04

2006-04-03T19:39:00.000-07:00

Bought to cover GGP, CMCSA. Sold VZ, CMVT, SNPS. Bought SPG, AMR, GSF, TS. Sold Short CCJ.

One day after preaching patience and confidence, I had the busiest trading day yet. So much for patience and confidence. Yet every trade I made, I looked at hard before pulling the trigger. All the new positions are patterns that look good, technicals that look good. Still would rather not have felt the need, but today's trading was one of the wildest in recent memory. Some stocks looked absolutely indefatigable, and then pish out went the air of the balloon. Or did it?

The Dow did virtually nothing, except repeat Friday's bar. The Nasdaq is still hugging the upper band. But it appears to be running out of steam. Obviously went short too soon on many stocks, but the basic industries hurt the most, with the Dow short term over sold, bought a few to off set the open positions. RTP and PD way too over bought to cover here, but TS provides some insurance.

Look at both AMR, SPG, and GSF. Nice mild dips in good patterns with technicals still looking strong. Tomorrow should be interesting. The only thing that would damped the portfolio tremendously would be a Nasdaq rally. Of course the portfolio gave up all it had recovered Friday with some extra thrown in just to be generous.

2006-04-02T16:18:00.000-07:00

Whenever there is a change in your trading habits, you must certainly re-examine your goals and methods, and for non-system traders you guts and emotions. In the beginning of February I began trading full-time, while running my business from my home. Trading had become something more crucial to my everyday survival rather than just hopefully fulfilling some longer term goals. This was the second big change in trading for me within a year. At roughly the same time last year, I had taken the same trading ideas that I had been honing on paper for over two years and began applying them with real dollars.

With each stage of trading becoming more important in my everyday life. I have likewise had to deal with the accompanying emotions of it, the gut wrenching of watching your capital plummet 5% in one day, the exhilaration of the opposite. The necessity of keeping closer vigilance, more up to date detailed records, the coming to terms of impulse decisions and rather they were right or wrong.

Also the very mechanics of trading have changed. When I paper traded I could ignore the markets for a few days when times got hectic, sure it might effect my 'return', but it was just for score keeping anyway. And then when I worked full-time I was on the road much of it, and only checked positions via phone, sometimes dumping positions, but rarely adding to them. Now while I watch the markets unfold in front of my eyes live, I have had to learn all over again.

A one minute time frame on the Nasdaq, leads to gut wrenching gyrations, while sometimes a five minute frame is too slow to catch genuine market reversals. I have to re-learn what is logical and what is out of context. I, sometimes find it better to not watch all , and just have faith in positions I have open.

I have looked throughout his first quarter, and saw some positions that I would not take now, I saw others that were closed out too soon. All in all patience and confidence, would have improved the first quarter performance. Due diligence in your process, and then having confidence in it, is what make successful traders, reacting and being impulsive do not. However, there are times when going with the flow will pay off, the skill here is recogizing that the move will be sizable enough for your account to trade.

DOW-Dow is right at a short term over sold condition, contrary to headlines. If the recent leg up is to continue than this would be the logical start. The fact that all systems showed short sell last week, and it was very subtle indeed, can mean that the trend is just too strong right now. If it goes down from here, the next upleg can be eyed with dubiousness.

Nasdaq-Is on a 3 day uptrend run on, and has not correct at all, unlike the Dow. The overall pattern is nice and logical without greed present.

AET-Looks very toppy, with a lower bollinger band hug to be the most likely future.

AMAT-Although the bands are pinching down, indicating the down trend might be coming to an end, it might fall if the market falls.

CMCSA-Pretty close to the likely bottom, this is a cover on strength.

CMVT-The price you pay for trading.

CVX-The expanding band width, fish lips, are bullish, one can only hope for bearish oil news.

GGP-toppy, toppy, toppy.

HAWK-See CVX, one can hope for a huge correction, but trending back up at the hitch zone seems likely.

MFE-Another cover on strength.

MS-Hugging that upper band, with fish lips.

PD-Has created a double top, if it holds, might still get out of this short with a profit.

RTP-That was quite a run up, but the double top still holds.

SNE-A logical place to continue the down trend is right here.

SNPS-It now looks topp, might sell this one, on weakness tomorrow.

TSN-A volatile little sucker for food. The bounce here was bigger than one would expect, it now appears to be in a trading zone, a lower band touch should not be too far away.

VZ-What looked ready to breakout failed.

Current Long Positions for 4/03/06

2006-04-02T07:44:00.000-07:00

CURRENT LONG OPEN POSITIONS
DATE.......................STOCK....................PRICE

03/02/06............MCHP..........................36.43
03/02/06............SNPS..........................22.30
03/13/06............VZ............................34.65

*Means half the original stake has been liquidated.

CURRENT SHORT OPEN POSITIONS
DATE,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,STOCK.......................PRICE
03/20/06...............CVX.........................56.95
03/20/06...............CMCSA.......................26.87
03/21/06...............MS..........................60.15
03/21/06...............RTP........................190.70
03/21/06...............PD..........................73.50
03/21/06...............HAWK........................12.71
03/27/06...............SNE.........................44.99
03/28/06...............AMAT........................17.44
03/28/06...............TSN.........................13.80
03/30/06...............AET.........................50.11
03/31/06...............GGP.........................50.61
03/31/06...............SNDK........................58.22

OPEN POSITIONS: -6.9%
COMPLETED LONG POSITIONS THIS YEAR

STOCK .. DATE.......... PRICE....DATE SOLD ..SELL PRICE.....% ...DAYS HELD

NOV.......12/21/05......64.55.....01/06/06........68.42...............5.99...11
FD........12/08/05......67.35.....01/05/06........68.69...............1.99...28
ABX.......11/17/05......27.15.....01/10/06........29.38...............8.21...54
VLO.......01/04/06......53.60.....01/11/06........56.89...............6.14....7
ACL.......12/05/06.....143.46.....01/11/06.......135.59..............-5.49...37
BBD.......01/04/06......31.55.....01/12/06........32.37...............2.60....8
MCHP......01/06/06......33.10.....01/13/06........34.21...............3.35....7
MC........12/23/05......19.77.....01/17/06........21.36...............8.04...25
GS........01/10/06.....130.05.....01/17/06.......132.00...............1.50....7
*BRCM.....01/25/06......58.30.....01/27/06........69.69...............9.76....2
*CGA......01/24/06......11.15.....01/27.06........12.70...............8.29....3
COH.......01/10/06......34.00.....01/30/06........35.75...............5.14...20
STT.......01/19/06......59.00.....02/01/06........60.38...............2.33...13
AKZOY.....01/20/06......46.90.....02/02/06........49.09...............4.66...13
*CGA......01/24/06......11.15.....02/01/06........12.66...............6.32....8
*BRCM.....01/25/06......58.30.....01/30/06........67.70...............8.06....5
UPS.......12/22/05......77.00.....02/15/06........75.51..............-1.90...55
LOW.......01/11/06......65.91.....02/16/06........66.90...............1.50...36
NTAP......02/01/06......31.41.....02/16/06........33.84...............7.73...15
BBD.......02/07/06......37.08.....02/15/06........38.14...............2.85....8
CYH.......01/17/06......38.55.....02/21/06........38.23..............-0.83...35
MHS.......01/19/06......56.40.....02/21/06........56.77...............0.65...33
TMX.......01/25/06......24.00.....02/23/06........22.53..............-6.12...29
CX........02/15/06......59.67.....02/23/06........62.62...............4.94....8
CDE.......02/21/06.......5.25.....02/21/06.........5.423..............3.29....1
EMC.......01/05/06......13.98.....02/28/06........14.22...............1.79...54
NIPNY.....02/22/06.......6.10.....02/28/06.........6.1828.............1.32....6
SNDK......02/27/06......59.16.....02/27/06........61.14...............3.34....1
POZN......02/27/06......16.8558...03/01/06........17.4828.............3.71....4
FSL.......03/01/06......27.18.....03/01/06........27.69...............1.87....1
PAAS..... 03/02/06......23.05.....03/02/06........23.88...............3.60....1
BRCM......03/08/06......46.35.....03/08/06........46.86...............1.10....1
CAJ.......03/16/06......63.68.....03/17/06........64.25...............0.89....2
PG........03/08/06......61.02.....03/14/06........60.19..............-1.36....6
PNK.......02/28/06......28.12.....03/13/06........30.14...............7.18...14
GLW.......03/14/06......25.84.....03/16/06........27.91...............8.01....3
BBY.......03/08/06......53.94.....03/16/06........57.04...............5.74....8
RTP.......02/07/06.....207.88.....03/17/06.......191.91..............-7.68...38
WAG.......03/08/06......44.06.....03/16/06........45.25...............2.70....8
STT.......03/09/06......62.08.....03/17/06........62.98...............1.44....8
FSL.......03/09/06......26.50.....03/21/06........27.25...............2.83...12
BBL.......02/21/06......35.34.....03/20/06........34.46..............-2.55...28
CRYP......03/16/06......24.99.....03/23/06........25.15...............0.64....7
UMC.......12/27/05.......3.33.....03/30/06.........3.36...............0.90...94
PDS.......01/23/06......34.98.....03/27/06........32.35..............-7.5....63
ESV.......02/06/06......50.09.....03/27/06........49.54..............-1.09...49
FRE.......02/23/06......68.10.....03/28/06........63.59..............-6.62...33
SNDK......03/01/06......61.41.....03/29/06........58.78..............-4.28...30
BBY.......03/28/06......54.98.....03/29/06........55.55...............1.03....1

Long Return for 2006
Winning trades 37
Average: %3.93
Losing trades 11
Average: %-4.12

Average Trade:2.085%
Average Days Held: 18.4 (including non trading days)
Total Trades:48

COMPLETED SHORT POSITIONS THIS YEAR

STOCK .. DATE.......... PRICE....EXIT DATE ..EXIT PRICE.....% ...DAYS HELD

KBH......12/01/05.......69.21...01/03/06......73.00.........-5.47...34
CHB......01/13/06.......13.46...01/17/06......13.12..........2.52....4
MBT......01/18/06.......37.00...01/18/06......36.36..........1.46....1
CWTR.....01/08/06.......21.00...01/23/06......20.38..........2.95...15
CMX......01/13/06.......51.55...01/24/06......50.66..........1.72....9
DCX......01/18/06.......52.75...01/24/06......54.74.........-3.77....6
CNX......01/30/06.......72.65...02/03/06......70.13..........3.46....4
NSM......02/02/06.......28.34...02/02/06......27.56..........2.75....1
SNV......01/31/06.......27.77...02/06/06......26.98..........2.84....7
HBAN.....02/02/06.......22.99...02/08/06......23.07..........-.34....5
NSM......02/21/06.......27.88...02/22/06......27.42..........1.64....1
FPL......02/15/06.......41.36...03/03/06......40.84..........1.25...16
CHKP.....02/28/06.......21.65...02/08/06......21.1299........2.40....1
SNV......02/15/06.......27.65...03/08/06......27.57..........0.20...24
GOOG.....02/22/06......365.81...03/08/06.....355.10..........2.92...14
PBR......02/22/06.......89.51...02/28/06......87.93..........1.76...6
IBM......02/23/06.......80.73...03/09/06......81.11..........0.47...14
ERICY....02/23/06.......34.71...03/10/06......33.90..........2.33...15
TOL......02/28/06.......32.70...03/08/06......31.30..........4.28...9
DOW......03/02/06.......43.52...03/08/06......42.42..........2.52...6
CMCSA....03/06/06.......26.99...03/10/06......26.26..........2.70...4
AMP......03/20/06.......45.65...03/21/06......44.29..........2.98...1
DHI......03/20/06.......34.36...03/21/06......32.95..........4.10...1

Short Return for 2006
Winning Trades: 20
Average trade: %2.34
Losing Trades: 3
Average Trade %-3.19

Average Trade: 1.77%
Averade Days Held: 8.55
Total Trades: 23

*MEANS HALF THE ORIGINAL STAKE WAS LIQUIDATED ON THIS DATE, THE RETURN THEREFORE WAS DIVIDED IN HALF FOR THE RETURN TO DATE CALCUALTIONS.

03/30/06

2006-03-29T18:36:00.000-08:00

Sold MCHP today, did not really like the pattern and thought the rally was a gift to cut the loss. Also sold SNDK as the market wavered toward the close thought might cut the loss on this one as well, although I liked the pattern.

Today was something of a surprise to say the least, after calling for shorts after yesterday's close, one of the purest moves I had seen in a while. With the benefit of today the Dow looked rather poised to rally, but hindsight is always 20/20. Still factoring in rising energy, rising interest, falling bonds, does one really look to buy here?

If it opens higher, which I doubt, I might look at BRCM, PLD, SPG or MNST. Also might cover MS and SNE. A flat to lower open, and I'll stay pat with dough on the sideline.

The lesson today was if you cannot admit you were wrong the market will hand you your hat, and steal the shirt off your back.

03/28/06

2006-03-28T18:59:00.000-08:00

Sold BBY after the fed news today to preserve the smallest of profit, and also sold FRE as it was looking doubtful there would be a rally in this stock anytime soon. Took a fairly big hit on this one. For the month, 21 out of 28 trades have been profitable but the losing ones have been 36% larger than the winners. Open profit losses have been reduced to 8.4% still too high but lower than the 11% of two weeks ago.

Sold short TSN, a fairly safe short, the pattern is easy pickings for further losses although it might be kept somewhat as a safe haven until the smoke clears. Also sold short AMAT as the chart appears headed for more lower band hugging.

The overall market looks very bearish short term and so do the indicators. A pure move should be on in the short term. I am short both HAWK and CVX in the oil sector, if oil continues to rise it will put more pressure on the market, if it corrects, these short losses will ease somewhat. That situation will work favorably for the portfolio in either scenario. Those are the kind of spots you like to be in. Of course I wish I hadn't shorted them so early, but I think it shall work out all right in the end.

Shorts for tomorrow's consideration are BCR, PHM, AET, TMX, BBD. So many shorts so little cash, but cut some long losses if the sky looks to be indeed falling tomorrow. This hsould be THE move of the month, a last few good days will help the flat month out.

03/28/06

2006-03-27T22:20:00.000-08:00

Sold PDS and ESV today. They had reached over bought levels and the morning looked like oil stocks were due for a rest. However, shortly after liquidation HAWK and CVX rallied, ESV and PDS never did.

Sold short SNE today. If you look at the chart you will see a very toppy pattern, with the price hugging the lower bollinger band. If the market breaks down from, than this looks likely to follow that lower sloping band down.

Bought BBY today nice sustainable up trend, is currently taking a breather, even if the market heads down, the risk looks limited.

Am not looking for a huge correction here, but some selling pressure seems likely, the catalyst could be tomorrow's Fed announcement. Ambiguity is my prediction, and the market is not going to rally on anything that is not cut and dried simple and rosy.

03/27/06

2006-03-26T08:20:00.000-08:00

If one looks at BBL and RTP, one sees an almost exact pattern. I was long both these positions which I liquidated on the down ward cross over of the 20 day moving average. I lost money on both of these trades. And I try now to look at clues for why they both reversed up ward again. And technically I can find none. The answer must be in the fundamental outlook. It is now more bullish for these stocks than it was in the previous month. Nothing probably has really changed fundamentally, other than the outlook of traders. I am not a fundamental trader, other than reading the opinions of those that are. I don't think you can possibly be both technical and fundamental and be good at both. Technicals lend themselves to pinpointing short term moves, better than fundamentals, therefore are what I focus on. However, there needs to be something one can learn from these charts. Mistakes are only valuable if one can learn something from them. I will say this, if you look at the crossover of BBL and RTP of their twenty day averages, you will see the average has become flat, instead of sloping downward. A sign the correction has ended. I have subsequently shorted RTP. Something I am in the hole on.

Short suggestions: SNE,F, BCR Lng suggestions: PLD, EQR, UNFI, SPG

DOW-The Dow has brooken away from the upper band. That is usually bearish, it is doubtful Bernake is going to satisfactorily appease traders with the Fed comments, at least nothing so far has made one believe he will. I guess they will be muddled, worse than Greenspan.

NASDAQ-Actually for once looks a little more bullish than the Dow, only if it is because it is not over bought as much. The band range is narrow, the chart correct to the hitch level.

SOX-A couple of strong days do not really mean the slide is over does it?

OSX-If this breaks out the Dow and Nasdaq will not be happy.

CMCSA-Although long term it is still bearish, I should have probably covered on Thursday.

CMVT-No comment, does one cut it here?

CVX-Short term it looks kind of bullish here does it not?

ESV-The anti CVX, looks even more bullish and has more volatility. Nice upper band hug, with fish lip band pattern.

FRE-Ugh, either are longer term hold or get me out now. Decisions, decisions.

HAWK-My best guess is it retreats to the lower band, is the rally in oil over for now?

MCHP-See UMC for the last how long, tight trading range looks to be the forecast.

MFE-Like this short at least to below the 20 day moving average.

MS-A semi reversal day on Friday, if Bernake disappoints watch the selling accelerate.

PD-Just don't see a break out right now, a correction to the lower band seems more likely.

PDS-My guess is getting out here, might be the best thing to do. Will see tomorrow.

RTP-Needs to re-visit the lower band.

SNDK-Does it have any oomph left?

SNPS-Quite a lower band hug developing.

UMC-Yawn

VZ-Quite a upper band hug developing.

Current Positions for 3/27/06

2006-03-26T07:53:00.000-08:00

CURRENT LONG OPEN POSITIONS
DATE.......................STOCK....................PRICE
12/27/05...............UMC.........................3.33
01/23/06.............,.PDS.........................34.98
02/06/06...........,..ESV..........................50.09
02/23/06.............FRE..........................68.10
03/01/06............SNDK..........................61.41
03/02/06............MCHP..........................36.43
03/02/06............SNPS..........................22.30

*Means half the original stake has been liquidated.

CURRENT SHORT OPEN POSITIONS
DATE,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,STOCK.......................PRICE
03/20/06...............CVX.........................56.95
03/20/06...............CMCSA.......................26.87
03/21/06...............MS..........................60.15
03/21/06...............RTP........................190.70
03/21/06...............PD..........................73.50
03/21/06...............HAWK........................12.71

OPEN POSITIONS: -9.42%
COMPLETED LONG POSITIONS THIS YEAR

STOCK .. DATE.......... PRICE....DATE SOLD ..SELL PRICE.....% ...DAYS HELD

NOV.......12/21/05......64.55.....01/06/06........68.42...............5.99...11
FD........12/08/05......67.35.....01/05/06........68.69...............1.99...28
ABX.......11/17/05......27.15.....01/10/06........29.38...............8.21...54
VLO.......01/04/06......53.60.....01/11/06........56.89...............6.14....7
ACL.......12/05/06.....143.46.....01/11/06.......135.59..............-5.49...37
BBD.......01/04/06......31.55.....01/12/06........32.37...............2.60....8
MCHP......01/06/06......33.10.....01/13/06........34.21...............3.35....7
MC........12/23/05......19.77.....01/17/06........21.36...............8.04...25
GS........01/10/06.....130.05.....01/17/06.......132.00...............1.50....7
*BRCM.....01/25/06......58.30.....01/27/06........69.69...............9.76....2
*CGA......01/24/06......11.15.....01/27.06........12.70...............8.29....3
COH.......01/10/06......34.00.....01/30/06........35.75...............5.14...20
STT.......01/19/06......59.00.....02/01/06........60.38...............2.33...13
AKZOY.....01/20/06......46.90.....02/02/06........49.09...............4.66...13
*CGA......01/24/06......11.15.....02/01/06........12.66...............6.32....8
*BRCM.....01/25/06......58.30.....01/30/06........67.70...............8.06....5
UPS.......12/22/05......77.00.....02/15/06........75.51..............-1.90...55
LOW.......01/11/06......65.91.....02/16/06........66.90...............1.50...36
NTAP......02/01/06......31.41.....02/16/06........33.84...............7.73...15
BBD.......02/07/06......37.08.....02/15/06........38.14...............2.85....8
CYH.......01/17/06......38.55.....02/21/06........38.23..............-0.83...35
MHS.......01/19/06......56.40.....02/21/06........56.77...............0.65...33
TMX.......01/25/06......24.00.....02/23/06........22.53..............-6.12...29
CX........02/15/06......59.67.....02/23/06........62.62...............4.94....8
CDE.......02/21/06.......5.25.....02/21/06.........5.423..............3.29....1
EMC.......01/05/06......13.98.....02/28/06........14.22...............1.79...54
NIPNY.....02/22/06.......6.10.....02/28/06.........6.1828.............1.32....6
SNDK......02/27/06......59.16.....02/27/06........61.14...............3.34....1
POZN......02/27/06......16.8558...03/01/06........17.4828.............3.71....4
FSL.......03/01/06......27.18.....03/01/06........27.69...............1.87....1
PAAS..... 03/02/06......23.05.....03/02/06........23.88...............3.60....1
BRCM......03/08/06......46.35.....03/08/06........46.86...............1.10....1
CAJ.......03/16/06......63.68.....03/17/06........64.25...............0.89....2
PG........03/08/06......61.02.....03/14/06........60.19..............-1.36....6
PNK.......02/28/06......28.12.....03/13/06........30.14...............7.18...14
GLW.......03/14/06......25.84.....03/16/06........27.91...............8.01....3
BBY.......03/08/06......53.94.....03/16/06........57.04...............5.74....8
RTP.......02/07/06.....207.88.....03/17/06.......191.91..............-7.68...38
WAG.......03/08/06......44.06.....03/16/06........45.25...............2.70....8
STT.......03/09/06......62.08.....03/17/06........62.98...............1.44....8
FSL.......03/09/06......26.50.....03/21/06........27.25...............2.83...12
BBL.......02/21/06......35.34.....03/20/06........34.46..............-2.55...28
CRYP......03/16/06......24.99.....03/23/06........25.15...............0.64....7

Long Return for 2006
Winning trades 35
Average: %4.10
Losing trades 7
Average: %-3.69

Average Trade:2.826%
Average Days Held: 14.28 (including non trading days)
Total Trades:43

COMPLETED SHORT POSITIONS THIS YEAR

STOCK .. DATE.......... PRICE....EXIT DATE ..EXIT PRICE.....% ...DAYS HELD

KBH......12/01/05.......69.21...01/03/06......73.00.........-5.47...34
CHB......01/13/06.......13.46...01/17/06......13.12..........2.52....4
MBT......01/18/06.......37.00...01/18/06......36.36..........1.46....1
CWTR.....01/08/06.......21.00...01/23/06......20.38..........2.95...15
CMX......01/13/06.......51.55...01/24/06......50.66..........1.72....9
DCX......01/18/06.......52.75...01/24/06......54.74.........-3.77....6
CNX......01/30/06.......72.65...02/03/06......70.13..........3.46....4
NSM......02/02/06.......28.34...02/02/06......27.56..........2.75....1
SNV......01/31/06.......27.77...02/06/06......26.98..........2.84....7
HBAN.....02/02/06.......22.99...02/08/06......23.07..........-.34....5
NSM......02/21/06.......27.88...02/22/06......27.42..........1.64....1
FPL......02/15/06.......41.36...03/03/06......40.84..........1.25...16
CHKP.....02/28/06.......21.65...02/08/06......21.1299........2.40....1
SNV......02/15/06.......27.65...03/08/06......27.57..........0.20...24
GOOG.....02/22/06......365.81...03/08/06.....355.10..........2.92...14
PBR......02/22/06.......89.51...02/28/06......87.93..........1.76...6
IBM......02/23/06.......80.73...03/09/06......81.11..........0.47...14
ERICY....02/23/06.......34.71...03/10/06......33.90..........2.33...15
TOL......02/28/06.......32.70...03/08/06......31.30..........4.28...9
DOW......03/02/06.......43.52...03/08/06......42.42..........2.52...6
CMCSA....03/06/06.......26.99...03/10/06......26.26..........2.70...4
AMP......03/20/06.......45.65...03/21/06......44.29..........2.98...1
DHI......03/20/06.......34.36...03/21/06......32.95..........4.10...1

Short Return for 2006
Winning Trades: 20
Average trade: %2.34
Losing Trades: 3
Average Trade %-3.19

Average Trade: 1.77%
Averade Days Held: 8.55
Total Trades: 23

*MEANS HALF THE ORIGINAL STAKE WAS LIQUIDATED ON THIS DATE, THE RETURN THEREFORE WAS DIVIDED IN HALF FOR THE RETURN TO DATE CALCUALTIONS.

03/23/06

2006-03-22T17:41:00.000-08:00

The market continues to meander, meander up, but meander nevertheless. We did nothing today. Are getting weary of FRE going higher, and are weary of our short MS going higher, might dump both tomorrow. Love the pattern CRYP, just after thinking it had taken too long. The mixed signals indicate that the market is probably going nowhere fast, although do not like the Dow mirror from yesterday to day. It should have extended higher to provoke enthusiasm, but it did not. If you are reasonably happy about your portfolio than there is probably no reason to do anything unless market action warrants it. Like MFE and SPF for shorts, but one must be careful as this bull could churn more, we have now had quite a few run on days with the Dow, and the more they persist the more likely they will continue. The Nasdaq dipped but was it a pause or a reversal? Today's action indicate it might have been just a pause, then again it did not rally with much conviction. If you have money on the sidelines keep it there, under a rock, in a mayonnaise jar, under your mattress, in your sock. Somewhere you can take it out and count it. It will make you feel better, for missing whatever might take place tomorrow.

03/22/06

2006-03-21T19:10:00.000-08:00

In the morning covered for profits DHI, AMP. Then later sold for profit FSL. Then even later sold short, HAWK, PD, MS. Actaully have no qualms about my trading today.

Thankfully semis fianlly rallied and allowed me to get out of at least one chip position, from the ridiculously over exposed to chips that I was. Even CMVT managed a bounce, that helped reduce open position damage, although still to high.

The day really looked like a reversal day to me. Not expecting the bottom to fall out or anything but am thinking there will be fewer up stocks than down in the near future. Lke RIO, MAR and TKP for shorts in the morning if the sell off continues.

3/21/06

2006-03-20T18:39:00.000-08:00

Sold BBL today. Sold short AMP,DHI,CVX.

Began the day again with CMVT tanking 5% at the open, the whole portfolio never recovered. It is very hard to accept such action twice within a week. Demoralization is more like it. Knowing it is part of the game, does not necessarily help in the midst of the day.

Dow still looks nice, although it has ran on now for 5 days, that is getting into the middle to old age of things, but it can and has lasted longer. The NASDAQ actually look better today than it did Friday. Looking at possibly LFL or JBL for tomorrow. Pickings however are getting slim, and might just take some DHI profits if the opening is strong which at this point is suspect.

03/20/06

2006-03-19T09:28:00.000-08:00

Went on quite a selling spree Friday, as the market action stalled and short term levels were over bought. Look to short some basic materials, housing and oil stocks early on Monday. Favorite symbols so far, DHI, SNP, CVX.

DOW-Pattern looks rather bullish, and there is till enough healthy skepticism to keep any over bought tendencies to be rather short lived.

NASDAQ-Ironically not as healthy as the Dow, and that in itself does not bode well for the short term. Our Seimis have been rather hammered of late.

SOX-If you want to see a bearish pattern here you go.

BBL-Looks tired and short term over bought might dump this early Monday.

CMVT-The price you pay for high techs.

CRYP-Impulse buy like CAJ, while CAJ turned out all right, the jury is still our here. Nice looking pattern however. It just dabbled too long on the lower band now for my comfort.

ESV-will dump on weakness tomorrow.

FRE-Fairly lame so far, perhaps will get second wind.

FSL-Semi waiting to rally, another impulse hoped for day trade that didn't materialize.

MCHP-Headed for disaster.

PDS-Going to hang in there on this one. No sense dumping all the basics, dumped RTP on Friday and perhaps ESV and BBL tomorrow.

SNDK-Seem MCHP, yet not as blatant, perhaps most of the damage is done.

UMC-At least this semi is just marking time.

VZ-Not too bad looking, definitely different, strong sector, and with Dow stocks looking to go higher, this is a hold.

Current Positions for 3/20/06

2006-03-19T09:04:00.000-08:00

CURRENT LONG OPEN POSITIONS
DATE.......................STOCK....................PRICE
12/27/05...............UMC.........................3.33
01/23/06.............,.PDS.........................34.98
02/06/06...........,..ESV..........................50.09
02/21/06..............BBL.........................35.34
02/23/06.............FRE..........................68.10
03/01/06............SNDK..........................61.41
03/02/06............MCHP..........................36.43
03/02/06............SNPS..........................22.30
03/09/06...........FSL............................26.50
03/16/06...........CRYP...........................24.99

OPEN POSITIONS: -10.24%

*Means half the original stake has been liquidated.

CURRENT SHORT OPEN POSITIONS
DATE,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,STOCK.......................PRICE

COMPLETED LONG POSITIONS THIS YEAR

STOCK .. DATE.......... PRICE....DATE SOLD ..SELL PRICE.....% ...DAYS HELD

NOV.......12/21/05......64.55.....01/06/06........68.42...............5.99...11
FD........12/08/05......67.35.....01/05/06........68.69...............1.99...28
ABX.......11/17/05......27.15.....01/10/06........29.38...............8.21...54
VLO.......01/04/06......53.60.....01/11/06........56.89...............6.14....7
ACL.......12/05/06.....143.46.....01/11/06.......135.59..............-5.49...37
BBD.......01/04/06......31.55.....01/12/06........32.37...............2.60....8
MCHP......01/06/06......33.10.....01/13/06........34.21...............3.35....7
MC........12/23/05......19.77.....01/17/06........21.36...............8.04...25
GS........01/10/06.....130.05.....01/17/06.......132.00...............1.50....7
*BRCM.....01/25/06......58.30.....01/27/06........69.69...............9.76....2
*CGA......01/24/06......11.15.....01/27.06........12.70...............8.29....3
COH.......01/10/06......34.00.....01/30/06........35.75...............5.14...20
STT.......01/19/06......59.00.....02/01/06........60.38...............2.33...13
AKZOY.....01/20/06......46.90.....02/02/06........49.09...............4.66...13
*CGA......01/24/06......11.15.....02/01/06........12.66...............6.32....8
*BRCM.....01/25/06......58.30.....01/30/06........67.70...............8.06....5
UPS.......12/22/05......77.00.....02/15/06........75.51..............-1.90...55
LOW.......01/11/06......65.91.....02/16/06........66.90...............1.50...36
NTAP......02/01/06......31.41.....02/16/06........33.84...............7.73...15
BBD.......02/07/06......37.08.....02/15/06........38.14...............2.85....8
CYH.......01/17/06......38.55.....02/21/06........38.23..............-0.83...35
MHS.......01/19/06......56.40.....02/21/06........56.77...............0.65...33
TMX.......01/25/06......24.00.....02/23/06........22.53..............-6.12...29
CX........02/15/06......59.67.....02/23/06........62.62...............4.94....8
CDE.......02/21/06.......5.25.....02/21/06.........5.423..............3.29....1
EMC.......01/05/06......13.98.....02/28/06........14.22...............1.79...54
NIPNY.....02/22/06.......6.10.....02/28/06.........6.1828.............1.32....6
SNDK......02/27/06......59.16.....02/27/06........61.14...............3.34....1
POZN......02/27/06......16.8558...03/01/06........17.4828.............3.71....4
FSL.......03/01/06......27.18.....03/01/06........27.69...............1.87....1
PAAS..... 03/02/06......23.05.....03/02/06........23.88...............3.60....1
BRCM......03/08/06......46.35.....03/08/06........46.86...............1.10....1
CAJ.......03/16/06......63.68.....03/17/06........64.25...............0.89....2
PG........03/08/06......61.02.....03/14/06........60.19..............-1.36....6
PNK.......02/28/06......28.12.....03/13/06........30.14...............7.18...14
GLW.......03/14/06......25.84.....03/16/06........27.91...............8.01....3
BBY.......03/08/06......53.94.....03/16/06........57.04...............5.74....8
RTP.......02/07/06.....207.88.....03/17/06.......191.91..............-7.68...38
WAG.......03/08/06......44.06.....03/16/06........45.25...............2.70....8
STT.......03/09/06......62.08.....03/17/06........62.98...............1.44....8
................

Long Return for 2006
Winning trades 34
Average: %4.24
Losing trades 6
Average: %-3.89

Average Trade:3.015%
Average Days Held: 14.18 (including non trading days)
Total Trades:40

COMPLETED SHORT POSITIONS THIS YEAR

STOCK .. DATE.......... PRICE....EXIT DATE ..EXIT PRICE.....% ...DAYS HELD

KBH......12/01/05.......69.21...01/03/06......73.00.........-5.47...34
CHB......01/13/06.......13.46...01/17/06......13.12..........2.52....4
MBT......01/18/06.......37.00...01/18/06......36.36..........1.46....1
CWTR.....01/08/06.......21.00...01/23/06......20.38..........2.95...15
CMX......01/13/06.......51.55...01/24/06......50.66..........1.72....9
DCX......01/18/06.......52.75...01/24/06......54.74.........-3.77....6
CNX......01/30/06.......72.65...02/03/06......70.13..........3.46....4
NSM......02/02/06.......28.34...02/02/06......27.56..........2.75....1
SNV......01/31/06.......27.77...02/06/06......26.98..........2.84....7
HBAN.....02/02/06.......22.99...02/08/06......23.07..........-.34....5
NSM......02/21/06.......27.88...02/22/06......27.42..........1.64....1
FPL......02/15/06.......41.36...03/03/06......40.84..........1.25...16
CHKP.....02/28/06.......21.65...02/08/06......21.1299........2.40....1
SNV......02/15/06.......27.65...03/08/06......27.57..........0.20...24
GOOG.....02/22/06......365.81...03/08/06.....355.10..........2.92...14
PBR......02/22/06.......89.51...02/28/06......87.93..........1.76...6
IBM......02/23/06.......80.73...03/09/06......81.11..........0.47...14
ERICY....02/23/06.......34.71...03/10/06......33.90..........2.33...15
TOL......02/28/06.......32.70...03/08/06......31.30..........4.28...9
DOW......03/02/06.......43.52...03/08/06......42.42..........2.52...6
CMCSA....03/06/06.......26.99...03/10/06......26.26..........2.70...4

Short Return for 2006
Winning Trades: 18
Average trade: %2.21
Losing Trades: 3
Average Trade %3.19

Average Trade:1.43%
Averade Days Held:9.27

Total Trades:21

*MEANS HALF THE ORIGINAL STAKE WAS LIQUIDATED ON THIS DATE, THE RETURN THEREFORE WAS DIVIDED IN HALF FOR THE RETURN TO DATE CALCUALTIONS.

3/16/06

2006-03-15T19:23:00.000-08:00

We did absolutely nothing today but observe. There might be some bumps here and there, but the market still looks like it is headed up. We would like to dump WAG on some strength, and perhaps GLW is done, or hopefully ready to explode. There seems to be some nice rotation that is keeping the market from getting ahead of itself, so barring catastrophic news things look OK.

03/15/06

2006-03-14T19:56:00.000-08:00

Sold PG, bought GLW.

The same fate or luck or what have you that handed me PNK yesterday and a quick 8% profit, also gave me today CMVT and a 14% drop. Like PG it gapped down at the open, unlike PG it never gave a reasonable place to dump it. Partly because PG was ripe to be sold as mentioned yesterday, and PG has so little volatility one can move in and out of it without much danger.

I was down 6%, 5 minutes after the open, and had felt a strange nervousness in my gut before the market opened. Some traders say they must ignore their gut, but I disagree, your gut is your collective, subconscious wisdom from all the things you have learned. And it is a wealth of knowledge that is instantaneous, it is your instinct that has been honed without your attention. It is all the stuff you have absorbed, and it is a priceless trading tool.

The rest of the portfolio responded as the day wore on. And ended up even for the day. CMVT rebounded some as the day wore on, and continued to do so in after hours trading.

Still bullish here, in fact I still see some room up wards to go.

03/13/06

2006-03-13T18:43:00.000-08:00

Sold PNK on the too good to be true theory. Also was a buyer of CMVT and VZ. Bought VZ at the exat high early in the morning when the market looked like it was going to take off on us, and lead us to the promised land.

It will clearly take some news to move this thing upward, but the apparent bearish in the market already, it might not take much. Plus the interest rates are ticking upward, and the next Fed meeting just might not produce another uptick like everyone assumes. I don't know, just pure speculation.

Taking a look at my last few close outs, there were many that were based just on daily charts, and wee closed out too soon. I think this action was a result of again not looking at my open positions. Because, frankly once I did that yesterday and computed the actual open redness, I became a more relaxed and focused trader today. Sort of returning to my roots, while my focus might be on more immediate profits, as I am not trading partially for a living and have more access to the markets, I still need to take daily moves in persepcitive to the longer term swing moves.

Having said that PG will be sold on any weakness.

03/13/06

2006-03-12T10:59:00.000-08:00

There are many intangibles pointing to a continued rally ahead. In fact it has been a few months since so many indicators are pointing in the same direction.

DOW-If you want to see a no brainer entry chart here you go, these gifts only come around a few times a year.

NASDAQ-Not nearly as defined as the Dow but still a low risk entry point.

SOX-Way oversold but over all a bearish chart.

BBL_should rally at least up to the hitch zone.

BBY-Nice band pinch, should break out form here.

ESV-Looks stronger than the previous moves, will be looking to dump this if it rallies here, unless the negative oil news resumes, then the market as a whole will likely not follow through.

FRE-Needs a market rally.

FSL-Needs a SOX rally. IF it comes watch out.

MCHP-See FSL.

PDS-This sad sack needs a crutch.

PG-Lots of momentum, looks like it could break out for another couple of quick points.

PNK-Look out here. If the rally starts this will skyrocket.

RTP-Nice day Friday, should break that overly steep down trend.

SNDK-Looks sick.

SNPS-Hitched on the last rally, needs a break through day to launch it.

STT-Bad day Friday, but should prove to be insignificant.

UMC-Needs to break through.

WAG-Upward ho!

2006-03-12T09:23:00.000-08:00

A certain amount of stubbornness, pig headedness, needs to be part of the trader's intellectual make up. To stand strong in the storm, to hold certain truths to be self evident. But he also needs the ability to look at these things he holds to be self-evident, and perhaps change that self-evidence, and in the end become a better trader. The thing that he holds to be self-evident may be the most extreme trading weakness he has. It is a tricky combination to hold his own truths and to know at anytime these truths could be shattered.

In this incidence I am talking about my refusal to look at open positions. After reading several e-mails on the subject and much self examination, I went back and included open positions in dollars totals at the beginning of a month in my private trading records. And I will show open positions as a percentage of my trading capital on my weekly 'Current positions' post. Right now it stands at a negative 11%, much improved from Thursday. But still a nasty number. The reason for the change, is that the I believe I will be a better trade because of this willingness to look at something I had up to now refused to do. I think when I have such a huge chunk of portfolio tied in drawdowns, it can only hurt my trading, and the refusal to look at it, was a sub conscious admission of to accept what could be a trading weakness. When I look at the numbers, the open position in negative dollars is larger on February 1 than it was on January 1, it makes February look less stellar than it was. In actuality the negative open position, is a burden I must over come in March, before I can really consider the March profits from closed positions to be true.

If I continually increase the open position drawdown, while closing out trades that are profits, I will sooner or later, have no capital to open new positions to profit from. It is like the national debt.

Not that open positions is going to go in a straight line, sometimes the market will have sharp reverses and the best thing to do is to be patient. But if you see a pattern of ever increasing open position drawdowns you need to look at it as a symptom of your trading. Perhaps you are jumping the gun on opening your positions, perhaps you bet too much in one direction. Perhaps it is just your trading style and something you must live with. If the case is the latter, than you will not see a tendency for the open positions to increase, but it will spike and then narrow, and you will see that pattern.

Aret here any truths in trading? Yes, if something makes you a better trader than do it. If something makes you a worse trader than stop it. How do you know? The proof is in your trading capital is it increasing or decreasing.

Current Positions for 3/13/06

2006-03-12T08:52:00.000-08:00

CURRENT LONG OPEN POSITIONS
DATE.......................STOCK....................PRICE
12/27/05...............UMC.........................3.33
01/23/06.............,.PDS.........................34.98
02/06/06...........,..ESV..........................50.09
02/07/06...........,..RTP.........................207.88
02/21/06..............BBL.........................35.34
02/23/06.............FRE..........................68.10
02/28/06.............PNK..........................28.12
03/01/06............SNDK..........................61.41
03/02/06............MCHP..........................36.43
03/02/06............SNPS...........................22.30
03/08/06............PG............................61.02
03/08/06............WAG...........................44.06
03/08/06............BBY...........................53.94
03/09/06............STT...........................62.08
03/09/06...........FSL............................26.50

OPEN POSITIONS: -11.65%

*Means half the original stake has been liquidated.

CURRENT SHORT OPEN POSITIONS
DATE,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,STOCK.......................PRICE

COMPLETED LONG POSITIONS THIS YEAR

STOCK .. DATE.......... PRICE....DATE SOLD ..SELL PRICE.....% ...DAYS HELD

NOV.......12/21/05......64.55.....01/06/06........68.42...............5.99...11
FD........12/08/05......67.35.....01/05/06........68.69...............1.99...28
ABX.......11/17/05......27.15.....01/10/06........29.38...............8.21...54
VLO.......01/04/06......53.60.....01/11/06........56.89...............6.14....7
ACL.......12/05/06.....143.46.....01/11/06.......135.59..............-5.49...37
BBD.......01/04/06......31.55.....01/12/06........32.37...............2.60....8
MCHP......01/06/06......33.10.....01/13/06........34.21...............3.35....7
MC........12/23/05......19.77.....01/17/06........21.36...............8.04...25
GS........01/10/06.....130.05.....01/17/06.......132.00...............1.50....7
*BRCM.....01/25/06......58.30.....01/27/06........69.69...............9.76....2
*CGA......01/24/06......11.15.....01/27.06........12.70...............8.29....3
COH.......01/10/06......34.00.....01/30/06........35.75...............5.14...20
STT.......01/19/06......59.00.....02/01/06........60.38...............2.33...13
AKZOY.....01/20/06......46.90.....02/02/06........49.09...............4.66...13
*CGA......01/24/06......11.15.....02/01/06........12.66...............6.32....8
*BRCM.....01/25/06......58.30.....01/30/06........67.70...............8.06....5
UPS.......12/22/05......77.00.....02/15/06........75.51..............-1.90...55
LOW.......01/11/06......65.91.....02/16/06........66.90...............1.50...36
NTAP......02/01/06......31.41.....02/16/06........33.84...............7.73...15
BBD.......02/07/06......37.08.....02/15/06........38.14...............2.85....8
CYH.......01/17/06......38.55.....02/21/06........38.23..............-0.83...35
MHS.......01/19/06......56.40.....02/21/06........56.77...............0.65...33
TMX.......01/25/06......24.00.....02/23/06........22.53..............-6.12...29
CX........02/15/06......59.67.....02/23/06........62.62...............4.94....8
CDE.......02/21/06.......5.25.....02/21/06.........5.423..............3.29....1
EMC.......01/05/06......13.98.....02/28/06........14.22...............1.79...54
NIPNY.....02/22/06.......6.10.....02/28/06.........6.1828.............1.32....6
SNDK......02/27/06......59.16.....02/27/06........61.14...............3.34....1
POZN......02/27/06......16.8558...03/01/06........17.4828.............3.71....4
FSL.......03/01/06......27.18.....03/01/06........27.69...............1.87....1
PAAS..... 03/02/06......23.05.....03/02/06........23.88...............3.60....1
BRCM......03/08/06......46.35.....03/08/06........46.86...............1.10....1

Long Return for 2006
Winning trades 28
Average: %4.22
Losing trades 4
Average: %-3.58

Average Trade:3.24%
Average Days Held: 15.01 (including non trading days)
Total Trades:32

COMPLETED SHORT POSITIONS THIS YEAR

STOCK .. DATE.......... PRICE....EXIT DATE ..EXIT PRICE.....% ...DAYS HELD

KBH......12/01/05.......69.21...01/03/06......73.00.........-5.47...34
CHB......01/13/06.......13.46...01/17/06......13.12..........2.52....4
MBT......01/18/06.......37.00...01/18/06......36.36..........1.46....1
CWTR.....01/08/06.......21.00...01/23/06......20.38..........2.95...15
CMX......01/13/06.......51.55...01/24/06......50.66..........1.72....9
DCX......01/18/06.......52.75...01/24/06......54.74.........-3.77....6
CNX......01/30/06.......72.65...02/03/06......70.13..........3.46....4
NSM......02/02/06.......28.34...02/02/06......27.56..........2.75....1
SNV......01/31/06.......27.77...02/06/06......26.98..........2.84....7
HBAN.....02/02/06.......22.99...02/08/06......23.07..........-.34....5
NSM......02/21/06.......27.88...02/22/06......27.42..........1.64....1
FPL......02/15/06.......41.36...03/03/06......40.84..........1.25...16
CHKP.....02/28/06.......21.65...02/08/06......21.1299........2.40....1
SNV......02/15/06.......27.65...03/08/06......27.57..........0.20...24
GOOG.....02/22/06......365.81...03/08/06.....355.10..........2.92...14
PBR......02/22/06.......89.51...02/28/06......87.93..........1.76...6
IBM......02/23/06.......80.73...03/09/06......81.11..........0.47...14
ERICY....02/23/06.......34.71...03/10/06......33.90..........2.33...15
TOL......02/28/06.......32.70...03/08/06......31.30..........4.28...9
DOW......03/02/06.......43.52...03/08/06......42.42..........2.52...6
CMCSA....03/06/06.......26.99...3/10/06.......26.26..........2.70...4

Short Return for 2006
Winning Trades: 18
Average trade: %2.21
Losing Trades: 3
Average Trade %3.19

Average Trade:1.43%
Averade Days Held:9.27

Total Trades:21

*MEANS HALF THE ORIGINAL STAKE WAS LIQUIDATED ON THIS DATE, THE RETURN THEREFORE WAS DIVIDED IN HALF FOR THE RETURN TO DATE CALCUALTIONS.

03/09/06

2006-03-08T17:53:00.000-08:00

Covered a bevy of stocks today, including DOW, GOOG, TOL, SNV all for profit except SNV which had a miniscule loss. Also day traded BRCM for about the same profit that SNV lost. All in all a nerve wracking emotional day. As I watched SNDK take a plunge, as well as RTP, BBL, PDS, two of three recovered. Also bought some defensive stocks and stocks that were rallying, PG, WAG, BBY. Will also be looking to cover IBM in the morning.

Dow and Nasdaq look like they want to rally here. And being down almost 5% in three days who am I to argue. Many stocks like mining, oil are very over sold and even a technical bounce here seems logical. The semis responded late in the day. Check out STT, FSL, ISIL, SLM for morning if you want to venture out into the unknown. After hours rallied, Japan is rallying, futures up. More illogical things could happen tomorrow then a good old fashioned rally.

2006-03-07T15:41:00.000-08:00

Last week was definitely an antsy week for me, and perhaps something I should pay attention too. Covering PBR was bonehead, and being long on basic industries and semis has put the portfolio down 4% in two days. But these things work in cycles, and the nice thing about having open losses is there are fewer jitters about covering your small profits. The only real coverable profit on the table right now is TOL, and the pattern looks like it might have room to go. However, with the market hitching left and right, might take the profit tomorrow a.m. if basic materials are being bought. The mining sector in particular has been ravaged.

Being right and still losing money, somehow doesn't have the same bite as being greedy and letting potential profits escape. However, lessons can be learned from this event. Calling for correction for about a week now, I must say I did not seeing it common so hard in such a few areas, namely the areas I am long in. Not too say the shorts aren't ahead after the last two days they are. But with the exception of TOL they have not been down near as much as the longs. Yesterday the four sharpest drops in the portfolio were all long positions. And today four out of five were. The good news is, they are proboably more done than not, and the sun will come out tomorrow.

Without seeing all the numbers, the Dow could be done correcting, the NASDAQ has more to go. At least at first glance.

03/07/06

2006-03-06T15:14:00.000-08:00

Shorted CMCSA today.

The market fell today. The hitch strategy was a help only in that in helped peeled losses in what would other wise be a disasterous day. However, in my portfolio the four biggest losers were all longs. Basic materials had a horrendous day as the sheep all moved out. The rest of the portfolio was flat, the problem was that I had covered the only two shorts in the sectors that got hit the hardest today, so the longs were out there all alone exposed.

Complaining about the market is a sure sing of mis-trading. The market can never be wrong, you can guess at it's next move or reaction, the only wrong is in your reaction to it. If you sell into it, then you are wrong, it is testing your fortitude. When you are wrong it is a gift from the market. And the gift says look at what you are oding and learn from it. Learning from your mistakes is the best teacher money can buy. And when you are talking trading you are talking money because that is what mistakes cost.

The reaction today was strong, without yet seeing all the data, I doubt tomorrow's action will be as strong, however, I am still betting that a week from now we are lower than today. Opinons are expensive so watch the formation of your own. And do not fall in love with them or think they are infallible.

Playing the Hitch

2006-03-05T09:57:00.000-08:00

I don't read enough trading literature anymore to know if this is an accepted term. It seems I picked it up somewhere, but I can't be sure. At best I invented it on my own, at worst I am misusing a term popular in the trading vernacular, thereby confusing evryone. However, even if the term is wrong the idea is right.

For those of you reading my blog you are seeing the word hitch, and the term hitching quite a lot recently. This is being written 03/05/06, and I want to explain more thoroughly. Hitching is nothing more than a prices inability to follow through on a price move. If a price is rallying then it's logical conclusion is the upper bollinger band or the upper stochastic zone. They can, of course, go further, but that is not the focus here. In narrow trading range markets, price action often does not complete its rally, at least on the first try. And you see many, many patterns orbiting around the 20 day moving average, like it has a hitch in its get along. Therefore the name. The price action has a hitch. One can look at the patterns and it is easy to imagine that the moving average has a gravitational zone, and the prices are just orbiting.
This can also work for prices you expect to decline, They move down nicely until a little below the moving average and just hover there. Do they go up from here or down? Much of it depends on the pull of the market in general, or at least the sector of the stock in question. And be very aware that some sector pulls are stronger than others.

So what to do when you notice hitching behavior? Well, if you are clairvoyant you should stay out, go on vacation, read a book, wait for some sort of move that shows promising trades. If you are already in the market, you can straddle the hitch.

If you are predominantly long, that get some shorts going. If you are long and notice a day or two of no follow through behavior find some stocks that have rallied past the hitch or at least are topping past their twenty day moving average somewhere below the upper bollinger band and short them. Make sure they are not in a long up trend pattern though. Just an oscillator will be fine. Then you have straddled the market and protected your positions, and as the whole thing works its way out, you can take profits on both ends. You will have to have patience as the resolution is likely to be one way first and the other way later. Usually these things work out on the down side, unless there is some specific bullish news. The reason is hitches are nothing more than market uncertainty, and we all know how the market feels about that. The worst thing to do, display along and get out of positions for losses. If you have that little confiedence in your trades, and/or you are so over exposed you have no money to be contrary, that you should seriously review your trading. For if you cannot survive a hitch how you are going to survive when you are plain wrong?

03/06/06

2006-03-05T08:14:00.000-08:00

The savvy trader probably laid low last week. It was like trying to clean up the flood with the water still figuring out where to go. Although I did squeeze some profits from day trading, I am left with many ambivalent open positions. Since the market needs to go one or another sooner or later, I can hope to clear half of them for some kind of narrow profit, and perhaps find a worth while day trade in there to move things the right direction.

while the bollinger bands continue to squeeze, the daily range is somewhat volatile, acting on early a.m. price moves has paid off by the afternoon. Although with PAAS, one could argue that I sold too soon. I took the easy profit, and reduced risk. I think the GOOG drop, where I could have netted a nifty profit and did not, affected my trading the rest of the week. If it is too good to be true, then take the profits. At least half of them.

DOW-Indicators all point down, Friday's range expansion day and failure to follow thru very bearish.

NASDAQ-Finally reached upper band, and is hugging it. When it breaks down from it, it will be time to get out of the longs, wish I hadn't bought many of them now. But there is still time and room to run.

BBL-At the hitch stage, hitches are where the price oscillates at the moving average instead of the upper or lower band. Longer term still bullish, which is good, because that is obviously what it is going to take.

DOW-like many non-tech and non-basic material shorts this one has made a quiet bullish run, doubtful it will cause too much damage. But as long as basic materials continue to be strong this one will be too.

ERICY-Nice little pattern it has made to look like the start of a rally. Will likely continue as long as the NASDAQ hugs that upper band, which usually last 3-5 days and is now on day three. This rally will probably not make it past the hitch and then reverse.

ESV-Short term over sold, does it have enough power to break the orbit of the hitch zone? Predicting oil is virtually impossible with all the political hiccups. How can you predict bad human behavior?

FRE-Does the sell-off break through the hitch zone?

GOOG-nothing quite hurts like opportunity lost. If it breaks up here, it could go on for quite a run. But there is something short term bearish about the pattern.

IBM-A very slow decline, hasn't broken through one way or another for over a month now. This is the most bearish of all patterns, yet no quick profits to be had here.

MCHP_long term very bullish, short term has to break the orbit of the hitch zone.

PDS-Hitching.

PNK-Looks rather toppy now doesn't it.

RTP-Looks past rather toppy now and rather bearish. Last rally could not break the hitch gravity.

SNDK-Played this pony one time too many.

SNPS-This pattern should have worked, extremely disappointing day Friday. Hitch gravity is just too strong.

SNV-Burn baby burn, gotta like this short right here, right now.

TOL-Only a matter of ill timed news.

UMC-Gotta wait again.

Current Positions for 03/06/06

2006-03-05T07:51:00.000-08:00

CURRENT LONG OPEN POSITIONS
DATE.......................STOCK....................PRICE
12/27/05...............UMC.........................3.33
01/23/06.............,.PDS.........................34.98
02/06/06...........,..ESV..........................50.09
02/07/06...........,..RTP.........................207.88
02/21/06..............BBL.........................35.34
02/23/06.............FRE..........................68.10
02/28/06.............PNK..........................28.12
03/01/06............SNDK..........................61.41
03/02/06............MCHP..........................36.43
03/02/06............SNPS...........................22.30

*Means half the original stake has been liquidated.

CURRENT SHORT OPEN POSITIONS
DATE,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,STOCK.......................PRICE

02/15/06...............SNV.........................27.65
02/22/06..............GOOG........................365.81
02/22/06...............PBR.........................89.51
02/23/06...............IBM.........................80.73
02/23/06.............ERICY.........................34.71
02/28/06...............TOL.........................28.70
03/02/06...............DOW.........................43.52

COMPLETED LONG POSITIONS THIS YEAR

STOCK .. DATE.......... PRICE....DATE SOLD ..SELL PRICE.....% ...DAYS HELD

NOV.......12/21/05......64.55.....01/06/06........68.42...............5.99...11
FD........12/08/05......67.35.....01/05/06........68.69...............1.99...28
ABX.......11/17/05......27.15.....01/10/06........29.38...............8.21...54
VLO.......01/04/06......53.60.....01/11/06........56.89...............6.14....7
ACL.......12/05/06.....143.46.....01/11/06.......135.59..............-5.49...37
BBD.......01/04/06......31.55.....01/12/06........32.37...............2.60....8
MCHP......01/06/06......33.10.....01/13/06........34.21...............3.35....7
MC........12/23/05......19.77.....01/17/06........21.36...............8.04...25
GS........01/10/06.....130.05.....01/17/06.......132.00...............1.50....7
*BRCM.....01/25/06......58.30.....01/27/06........69.69...............9.76....2
*CGA......01/24/06......11.15.....01/27.06........12.70...............8.29....3
COH.......01/10/06......34.00.....01/30/06........35.75...............5.14...20
STT.......01/19/06......59.00.....02/01/06........60.38...............2.33...13
AKZOY.....01/20/06......46.90.....02/02/06........49.09...............4.66...13
*CGA......01/24/06......11.15.....02/01/06........12.66...............6.32....8
*BRCM.....01/25/06......58.30.....01/30/06........67.70...............8.06....5
UPS.......12/22/05......77.00.....02/15/06........75.51..............-1.90...55
LOW.......01/11/06......65.91.....02/16/06........66.90...............1.50...36
NTAP......02/01/06......31.41.....02/16/06........33.84...............7.73...15
BBD.......02/07/06......37.08.....02/15/06........38.14...............2.85....8
CYH.......01/17/06......38.55.....02/21/06........38.23..............-0.83...35
MHS.......01/19/06......56.40.....02/21/06........56.77...............0.65...33
TMX.......01/25/06......24.00.....02/23/06........22.53..............-6.12...29
CX........02/15/06......59.67.....02/23/06........62.62...............4.94....8
CDE.......02/21/06.......5.25.....02/21/06.........5.423..............3.29....1
EMC.......01/05/06......13.98.....02/28/06........14.22...............1.79...54
NIPNY.....02/22/06.......6.10.....02/28/06.........6.1828.............1.32....6
SNDK......02/27/06......59.16.....02/27/06........61.14...............3.34....1
POZN......02/27/06......16.8558...03/01/06........17.4828.............3.71....4
FSL.......03/01/06......27.18.....03/01/06........27.69...............1.87....1
PAAS..... 03/02/06......23.05.....03/02/06........23.88...............3.60....1

Long Return for 2006
Winning trades 27
Average: %4.34
Losing trades 4
Average: %-3.58

Average Trade:3.80%
Average Days Held: 15.47 (including non trading days)
Total Trades:31

COMPLETED SHORT POSITIONS THIS YEAR

STOCK .. DATE.......... PRICE....EXIT DATE ..EXIT PRICE.....% ...DAYS HELD

KBH......12/01/05.......69.21...01/03/06......73.00.........-5.47...34
CHB......01/13/06.......13.46...01/17/06......13.12..........2.52....4
MBT......01/18/06.......37.00...01/18/06......36.36..........1.46....1
CWTR.....01/08/06.......21.00...01/23/06......20.38..........2.95...15
CMX......01/13/06.......51.55...01/24/06......50.66..........1.72....9
DCX......01/18/06.......52.75...01/24/06......54.74.........-3.77....6
CNX......01/30/06.......72.65...02/03/06......70.13..........3.46....4
NSM......02/02/06.......28.34...02/02/06......27.56..........2.75....1
SNV......01/31/06.......27.77...02/06/06......26.98..........2.84....7
HBAN.....02/02/06.......22.99...02/08/06......23.07..........-.34....5
NSM......02/21/06.......27.88...02/22/06......27.42..........1.64....1
FPL......02/15/06.......41.36...03/03/06......40.84..........1.25...16
CHKP.....02/28/06.......21.65...02/08/06......21.1299........2.40....1

Short Return for 2006
Winning Trades: 10
Average trade: %2.29
Losing Trades: 3
Average Trade %3.19

Average Trade:1.02%
Averade Days Held:7.92

Total Trades:13

*MEANS HALF THE ORIGINAL STAKE WAS LIQUIDATED ON THIS DATE, THE RETURN THEREFORE WAS DIVIDED IN HALF FOR THE RETURN TO DATE CALCUALTIONS.

03/02/06

2006-03-01T18:37:00.000-08:00

Day traded FSL today, bought SNDK and sold POZN. Missed an opportunity to cover TOL for a profit early in the morning. And then the thing reversed on me.

The market continues to be without direction, look to the semis for longs. The Nasdaq is right at resistance, and the Dow had an inside day. Perhaps it was all hesitation before the correction. I really find it hard to believe the Dow will return to the upper band without further correction.

The month of February produced no bollinger band touches for the Nasdaq, and just one for the Dow, and that one ran on for five days. The February range between highs and lows for the Nasdaq was very narrow only %3.5, less than the Dow which does not happen very often. The narrow range and lack of clear buying and selling points led to the smaller trading profits and losses per trade. The last two days taken together have produced very little range, but each day separately was larger than average. This kind of activity is often seen at tops, that lead to quick break downs and recoveries.

02/28/06

2006-02-28T15:44:00.000-08:00

Busy day to say the least, this day looked like it was coming for quite some time now, especially as marked by the dow pattern. Sold short and covered CHKP, for my third day trade in one week that has been profitable. Under the heading of too good to be true was GOOG, although I failed to cover at the low, even though I was watching the chart right in front of my eyes, it was too good to be true, yet I was gving in to greed, and still hold it. Not that I think that is necessarily a bad thing right here.

I had never intended any of the three day trades to be that way when I opened them. But they are moved favorably while I was holding them, and their move was too good to be true. The market is a great equalizer, and you must jump on these inequities while the jumping is good.

Also covered today PBR, for a profit, sold NIPNY for a small profit as it gapped down at the open. Sold long holding EMC for a profit. And bought PNK. Only good set up for tomorrow that I could find was shorting DOW.

Preliminary Fberuary numbers were 20 winning trades to 4 losers, with average winning trade about 88% of the size of the losing ones. Another gloriously profitable month. Previuosly I said I was trading for a living next year, well it started this month. And for a living, I am finding is something quite different from trading for a side job. I will write more on this later.

02/28/06

2006-02-27T15:38:00.000-08:00

Bought and sold SNDK today for a profit, and bought and still own POZN. Individual trades this month have been for smaller amounts than January both profits and losses. With 16 profitable trades and just 4 losing ones, February will be the second profitable month in a row. Although if one considers open issues the month will be barely up. I don't consider open issues, though because they are almost always in the red, unless it is the very beginning of a very powerful move. With the turnover of stocks I have, the only way to give attention to open losses would be negative. The average trade lasts well under 30 days, and to end losing trades just for the sake of being rid of them would be the stupidest trading move one like me could make, and frankly is the doom of more traders than anything else. The fact that most of my stocks are large caps, and all are at least mid-caps, and the portfolio is very diversified in just about every imaginable way diversification could be measured all allows for one conclusion to open losses. Sooner or later they will be either be taken, or the losses erased. All in all my very trading methods do more to preserve trading capital than Stupid randomly placed stops ever hope to accomplish. All stops do is guarantee a loss. I do, allow a much shorter rope on shorts, than longs, although this group of shorts we'll let run a little bit. As the continuation of a rally at this level, will be offset by my purchasing longs into the rally. As I did today and last week. Of the present shorts only GOOG appears to be making a run for it, but anyone who has followed GOOG knows it can change at the drop of a hat, or a rumor. And covering right here would be preposterous, and that is exactly what a stop would do.

The Nasdaq performed quite nicely today. Thought the sell off in oil related stocks was over done, will be watching the scat short profit we have in PBR, although there might be more later, even if it does bounce tomorrow. Industrials and basics all took it in the shorts today, but they will have their day again.

02/27/96

2006-02-26T08:11:00.000-08:00

I suppose a smarter trader would just rest a few days. The market is at a teetering point, and the charts look fairly negative. Yet after the run on rally by the Dow, the Nasdaq now seems to be re-born. It just goes to show you 'it's always something.' Instead of laying low and letting the market decide the next direction, I jumped in with both feet, and tried to read significance into every micro move. It has not been a disastrous fate by any stretch, February should end profitable, as I have straddled the market fairly equally, and unless all my short sectors rally, and my log sectors tumble (which again is quite impossible since I am both long and short in the same sector), however profitable trades have been profitable by half as much as January, luckily so have the losses. After January's fireworks I guess that could have been predicted. But predictions, like opinions are expensive.

DOW-Near term the Dow looks like a correction in the early stages. Finally, breaking its suckling of the upper band, the pattern is true order and predictability at its finest, and that is exactly what scares me.

NASDAQ-The nasdaq has yet to break that short term down ward trendline. Yet some of the short term technicals look bullish. So do the mid-term ones. Hence a paradox. Being comfortable with paradoxes is a trait of a good trader.

BBL-Clearly a bearish formation, this one will try the patience, needs to hitch up right now, to avoid long term damage.

EMC-Nice little surprise here, however, Fridays action has the symptoms of an exhaustion day, the only thing missing was high volume, and it did not close at the bottom.

ERICY-Could this be the move that breaks support?

ESV-Will it continue? Nothing depends more on the news lately than oil.

FPL-Lining out, odds are it touches at least the lower bollinger band.

FRE-More upside? If the Dow does rally this goes along for the exaggerated ride, downside risk is small here.

GOOG-It rallied through the short term hitch I was shorting, but not by much, longer term this looks bearish, holding on here, although it might get uncomfortable before it is over.

IBM-Will it break support? One has to think it will if the nasdaq rally fizzles, could be nice.

NIPNY-It is at that hitch zone, does it have enough to break on through or is it out of gas? I will be guarding this small profit like a scared mother bear.

PBR-Followed through on the short term hitch I was shorting, we'll see from here. Still looks like it is only a matter of time.

PDS-Like PBR and ESV, it is at the hitch, up or down form here??

RTP-Hitch failure.

SNV-Short term looks bullish, but I for one do not think it can continue.

UMC-Been holding onto this one for a long time now, still looks optimistic, just quietly waiting for the love.

Current Positions for 2/?27/06

2006-02-26T07:51:00.000-08:00

CURRENT LONG OPEN POSITIONS
DATE.......................STOCK....................PRICE
12/27/05...............UMC.........................3.33
01/05/06................EMC.......................13.98
01/23/06..............PDS.........................34.98
02/06/06.............ESV..........................50.09
02/07/06.............RTP.........................207.88
02/21/06..............BBL.........................35.34
02/22/06.............NIPNY.........................6.10
02/23/06.............FRE..........................68.10

*Means half the original stake has been liquidated.

CURRENT SHORT OPEN POSITIONS
DATE,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,STOCK.......................PRICE

02/15/06...............SNV.........................27.65
02/15/06...............FPL.........................41.36
02/22/06..............GOOG........................365.81
02/22/06...............PBR.........................89.51
02/23/06...............IBM.........................80.73
02/23/06.............ERICY.........................34.71

COMPLETED LONG POSITIONS THIS YEAR

STOCK .. DATE.......... PRICE....DATE SOLD ..SELL PRICE.....% ...DAYS HELD

NOV.......12/21/05......64.55.....01/06/06........68.42...............5.99...11
FD........12/08/05......67.35.....01/05/06........68.69...............1.99...28
ABX.......11/17/05......27.15.....01/10/06........29.38...............8.21...54
VLO.......01/04/06......53.60.....01/11/06........56.89...............6.14....7
ACL.......12/05/06.....143.46.....01/11/06.......135.59..............-5.49...37
BBD.......01/04/06......31.55.....01/12/06........32.37...............2.60....8
MCHP......01/06/06......33.10.....01/13/06........34.21...............3.35....7
MC........12/23/05......19.77.....01/17/06........21.36...............8.04...25
GS........01/10/06.....130.05.....01/17/06.......132.00...............1.50....7
*BRCM.....01/25/06......58.30.....01/27/06........69.69...............9.76....2
*CGA......01/24/06......11.15.....01/27.06........12.70...............8.29....3
COH.......01/10/06......34.00.....01/30/06........35.75...............5.14...20
STT.......01/19/06......59.00.....02/01/06........60.38...............2.33...13
AKZOY.....01/20/06......46.90.....02/02/06........49.09...............4.66...13
*CGA......01/24/06......11.15.....02/01/06........12.66...............6.32....8
*BRCM.....01/25/06......58.30.....01/30/06........67.70...............8.06....5
UPS.......12/22/05......77.00.....02/15/06........75.51..............-1.90...55
LOW.......01/11/06......65.91.....02/16/06........66.90...............1.50...36
NTAP......02/01/06......31.41.....02/16/06........33.84...............7.73...15
BBD.......02/07/06......37.08.....02/15/06........38.14...............2.85....8
CYH.......01/17/06......38.55.....02/21/06........38.23..............-0.83...35
MHS.......01/19/06......56.40.....02/21/06........56.77...............0.65...33
TMX.......01/25/06......24.00.....02/23/06........22.53..............-6.12...29
CX........02/15/06......59.67.....02/23/06........62.62...............4.94....8
CDE.......02/21/06.......5.25.....02/21/06.........5.423..............3.29....1

Long Return for 2006
Winning trades 21
Average: %4.84
Losing trades 4
Average: %-3.58

Average Trade:3.49%
Average Days Held: 18.67 (including non trading days)
Total Trades:25

COMPLETED SHORT POSITIONS THIS YEAR

STOCK .. DATE.......... PRICE....EXIT DATE ..EXIT PRICE.....% ...DAYS HELD

KBH......12/01/05.......69.21...01/03/06......73.00.........-5.47...34
CHB......01/13/06.......13.46...01/17/06......13.12..........2.52....4
MBT......01/18/06.......37.00...01/18/06......36.36..........1.46....1
CWTR.....01/08/06.......21.00...01/23/06......20.38..........2.95...15
CMX......01/13/06.......51.55...01/24/06......50.66..........1.72....9
DCX......01/18/06.......52.75...01/24/06......54.74.........-3.77....6
CNX......01/30/06.......72.65...02/03/06......70.13..........3.46....4
NSM......02/02/06.......28.34...02/02/06......27.56..........2.75....1
SNV......01/31/06.......27.77...02/06/06......26.98..........2.84....7
HBAN.....02/02/06.......22.99...02/08/06......23.07..........-.34....5
NSM......02//21/06......27.88...02/22/06......27.42..........1.64....1

Short Return for 2006
Winning Trades: 8
Average trade: %2.41
Losing Trades: 3
Average Trade %3.19

Average Trade:.88%
Averade Days Held:7.9

Total Trades:11

*MEANS HALF THE ORIGINAL STAKE WAS LIQUIDATED ON THIS DATE, THE RETURN THEREFORE WAS DIVIDED IN HALF FOR THE RETURN TO DATE CALCUALTIONS.

2/24/06

2006-02-23T13:08:00.000-08:00

Shorted IBM and ERICY, sold CX and TMX bought FRE.

The last two days have been tough, these are the churning days that can eat up your bank. The sell-off today was telling, we have no long profits to protect, and we ended TMX, that hitch looked ominous. DOW, finally broke its upper band snuggle, and the NASDAQ faded as soon as it tipped through the trend line. Watch out. If the market pulls through this without selling off, it may be in for a bullish spring.

02/23/06

2006-02-22T15:57:00.000-08:00

Covered NSM for a profit about half the size of average for the month, but a small profit is infinitely better than a small loss. Also sold short GOOg, yes GOOG, how uninternetican of me, and PBR. Also bought NIPNY. ESV reported profits, and although I have not researched them yet, I take it the'Street' was not pleased.

The market on one hand ws stronger today. But on the other did nothing. Almost a mirror of yesterday, the DOW continues its run on rally, and this is the strongest type of rally, smaller than average daily ranges and the highs continue to ride the upper band. The big news is the NASDAQ out performed the Dow, but again it did not shake out. The market internals still are strong though. But the NASDAQ has yet to break through that down ward trend line. So mixed signals it is, mixed signals though sometimes are the foundation of long rather unspectauclar rallies. And they mirror the real life signals we are getting, in regards to interest rates and economic and political developments.

SLM, FRE and FNM show some follow through promise for tomorrow. As the latest take is inflation is now subdued. Maybe look at CSR and if you have faith in the techs again MCHP.

02/22/06

2006-02-21T16:25:00.000-08:00

Bought and sold CDE today, for an above average profit for this month. Also sold CYH and MHS, very small gain in MHS and an average loss in CYH. Also bought and still own BBL, and shorted NSM. The decision on CDE was tough, the gain was too good to be true, the first sign of time to take profits. The precious metals were flat today, and BBL also has mining interests. No need to be over exposed in one area (see PDS and ESV, and also MHS and CYH for that matter) so decided to take profits. It also has hit some resistance area, and also some early over bought conditions. Though volume was above average so could easily blast through that.

The Dow had another run on day, still hugging that upper bollinger band, but cracks are obvious, and if you look at NASDAQ anything but lower highs for the next little bit would be surprising. Indeed we have many things in place for continued sell-off, higher interest rates in the offing, strong leading indicators, earnings warnings, trouble in oil land. But the most bearish is the fact the Nasdaq has yet to rally despite the Dow.

Have many short opportunities for tomorrow including MO, ERICY, DOW and IBM.

2006-02-20T07:52:00.000-08:00

CURRENT LONG OPEN POSITIONS
DATE.......................STOCK....................PRICE

12/27/05...............UMC.........................3.33
01/05/06................EMC.......................13.98

01/17/06...............CYH........................38.55
01/19/06..............MHS.........................56.40
01/23/06..............PDS.........................34.98
01/25/06..............TMX.........................24.00
02/15/06..............CX..........................59.67

*MEans half the original stake has been liquidated.

CURRENT SHORT OPEN POSITIONS
DATE,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,STOCK.......................PRICE

02/15/06...............SNV.........................27.65
02/15/06...............FPL.........................41.36

COMPLETED LONG POSITIONS THIS YEAR

STOCK .. DATE.......... PRICE....DATE SOLD ..SELL PRICE.....% ...DAYS HELD

NOV.......12/21/05......64.55.....01/06/06........68.42...............5.99...11
FD........12/08/05......67.35.....01/05/06........68.69...............1.99...28
ABX.......11/17/05......27.15.....01/10/06........29.38...............8.21...54
VLO.......01/04/06......53.60.....01/11/06........56.89...............6.14....7
ACL.......12/05/06.....143.46.....01/11/06.......135.59..............-5.49...37
BBD.......01/04/06......31.55.....01/12/06........32.37...............2.60....8
MCHP......01/06/06......33.10.....01/13/06........34.21...............3.35....7
MC........12/23/05......19.77.....01/17/06........21.36...............8.04...25
GS........01/10/06.....130.05.....01/17/06.......132.00...............1.50....7
*BRCM.....01/25/06......58.30.....01/27/06........69.69...............9.76....2
*CGA......01/24/06......11.15.....01/27.06........12.70...............8.29....3
COH.......01/10/06......34.00.....01/30/06........35.75...............5.14...20
STT.......01/19/06......59.00.....02/01/06........60.38...............2.33...13
AKZOY.....01/20/06......46.90.....02/02/06........49.09...............4.66...13
*CGA......01/24/06......11.15.....02/01/06........12.66...............6.32....8
*BRCM.....01/25/06......58.30.....01/30/06........67.70...............8.06....5
UPS.......12/22/05......77.00.....02/15/06........75.51..............-1.90...55
LOW.......01/11/06......65.91.....02/16/06........66.90...............1.50...36
NTAP......02/01/06......31.41.....02/16/06........33.84...............7.73...15
BBD.......02/07/06......37.08.....02/15/06........38.14...............2.85....8

Long Return for 2006
Winning trades 18
Average: %5.16
Losing trades 2
Average: %3.69

Average Trade:4.35%
Average Days Held: 18.04 (including non trading days)
Total Trades:20

COMPLETED SHORT POSITIONS THIS YEAR

STOCK .. DATE.......... PRICE....EXIT DATE ..EXIT PRICE.....% ...DAYS HELD

KBH......12/01/05.......69.21...01/03/06......73.00.........-5.47...34
CHB......01/13/06.......13.46...01/17/06......13.12..........2.52....4
MBT......01/18/06.......37.00...01/18/06......36.36..........1.46....1
CWTR.....01/08/06.......21.00...01/23/06......20.38..........2.95...15
CMX......01/13/06.......51.55...01/24/06......50.66..........1.72....9
DCX......01/18/06.......52.75...01/24/06......54.74.........-3.77....6
CNX......01/30/06.......72.65...02/03/06......70.13..........3.46....4
NSM......02/02/06.......28.34...02/02/06......27.56..........2.75....1
SNV......01/31/06.......27.77...02/06/06......26.98..........2.84....7
HBAN.....02/02/06.......22.99...02/08/06......23.07..........-.34....5

Short Return for 2006
Winning Trades: 7
Average trade: %2.53
Losing Trades: 3
Average Trade %3.19

Average Trade:.81%
Averade Days Held:8.6

Total Trades:10

*MEANS HALF THE ORIGINAL STAKE WAS LIQUIDATED ON THIS DATE, THE RETURN THEREFORE WAS DIVIDED IN HALF FOR THE RETURN TO DATE CALCUALTIONS.

02/21/06

2006-02-20T07:24:00.000-08:00

Oil has crept up its ugly bugaboo head again. No real surprise there, if we did not already have two oil concerns we would be buying right here. But we bought too early, and now hope to recoup losses this week, and then maybe some more.

DOW-Has been 3 days on a over bought run on, hugging that upper band, waiting for the NASDAQ to catch up. Really do not thin it will wait much longer.

NASDAQ-Perfect small time three touch down trend going, does not appear to be any good news on the near horizon, and we're talking like tomorrow to carry it higher. But we'll have to see.

CX-The littlest of bumps here has provided some profit cushion. If anything rallies this week it will be oil and basic materials, we'll scrutinize this one closely.

CYH-Yet another example of why patience with losses is mandatory.

EMC-Conflicting signs here, a nice slight down trendline could be drawn here. Yet the current 'rally' is stronger than recent tries have been. However, without broader market support it is doubtful to continue.

ESV-Trying to rally, might continue if oil sector rally continues.

FPL-Utility short, might follow energy sector higher.

MHS-Nice rally

PDS-seriously over sold, will rally if oil continues.

RTP-Everything is pointing up here.

SNV-Still in a nice short position.

TMX-Struggling.

UMC-ditto.

02/16/06

2006-02-16T07:33:00.000-08:00

Took proftis this a.m in both NTAP and MOT. The nasdaq continues to wander, although the Dow is behaving exactly like a run on rally, small daily ranges and hugging the upper band, although the run on rally is only one day old, (maybe two if it rallies today)so definitions can't really be made at this time.

Waiting for the bounce is one of the most difficult things in short term trading, and also one of the largest advantages of trading large caps. This particular form of patience has paid for itself over and over again since starting this blog. Even if your techniques are solid and proven you will still have stocks fade on you. But large caps rarely do not offer a more profitable exit within three months than the exit spots following down gaps. Swallowing those 'open position' losses can be hard to get used to. But swallowing a temporary open position paper only loss, is much easier than swallowing an actual loss. In fact swallowing is the wrong word, how about chewing on those open losses.

If you ease into market moves, and vary your favorite patterns and vary industries, and select stocks in various long term cycles, one can reduce their exposure to gap downs, and smooth the effect they would have on your overall portfolio performance.

02/15/06

2006-02-15T18:01:00.000-08:00

Took profits today in AMAT, BBD, and sold UPS for a small loss. So far this month 6 winning trades vs. 2 losing trades with the winning trades slightly larger than the losing ones. Although they are still only sixty percent the size of January. The real story of late has been the size of the losing open positions, lately PDS and ESV, not to mention EMC and UMC. One only has to look at UPS and LOW and CYH and MHS to see that being patient when a long goes against you pays off. The long term reader might also remember SHW and the five weak sisters from last fall.

Sold AMAT because midday action was weak and earnings were due, and had a profit. Kept NTAP because it had already sold off, and earnings were also due. It is more profitable to sell high risers before earnings and keep laggards, for the bad news has already discounted the stock. In the end, NTAP rose about 8% after hours, which is good, and AMAT rose about 1% which is nothing to sneeze at.

The Nasdaq finally broke away from the lower band today, and shows some life.

Also bought CX, and sold short SNV and FPL.

02/15/06

2006-02-14T16:55:00.000-08:00

The market was stronger today than one would have expected. Tomorrow the new Fed chief most powerful man on earth speaks to us. Much has been made of the event, but obviously the market is not too worried or it would not have rallied the day before. February has been especially tough on the Nasdaq, and while the Dow looks helathy it cannot go it alone. While I doubt the Fed Gead will say anything to deliberately rattle the markets, the Dow looks precariously over bought in light of the current Nasdaq chart, somethings gotta give. And does anyone really think oil won't see high sixties per barrel again within a month?

Poised with the profit taking finger ready. BBD, AMAT, MOT, might also be time to look into dumping UPS, and LOW. Am usually a day or two early, though so perhaps my profit taking finger is bullish.

2006-02-13T09:16:00.000-08:00

Aimless drift days, like today, can give you valuable insight into the market health. It is easy to discard tight trading range days as direction less and without merit. But if these days trend lower, they are not to be ignored. It gives us an insight that the market's penchant will be towards lower prices. It will take more good news to make it rally, and then it will rally less dramatically than if aimless drift days, drifted higher.

Over 65% of all volume today on the NYSE and Nasdaq was down volume. Look at the Dow chart and it was an inside day, no new high, or new low and the underlying technicals remain healthy. The Nasdaq looks sick. I see no reason to expect a rally tomorrow, but with a fully invested long portfolio, one can always hope. And what is the first sign of bad trading? Hope. Our only profit BBD was downgraded by Bear Stearns today and sunk, those bastards.

02/13/06

2006-02-12T07:55:00.000-08:00

Covered all shorts and bought BBD, since the last post. If you look at the daily charts of the market for last Friday, you see a perfect day, poised to go higher. How much this carries over to Monday though remains to be seen. Of the traditionally bullish season from November through April, February is the choppiest month. We had an uninspired move up that ended at the beginning of February, and an uninspired move down that ended apparently on the seventh.

DOW-Underlying technicals actually look bullish. Was not overly impressed with action Friday, but staying in.

NASDAQ-Unlike the Dow, short term has not provided a rally. Long term still shows health and promise. Re-touch of lower band is not necessarily bad.

AMAT-Perhaps should have sold on the upper midday touch on Thursday. Loner term still healthy.

BBD-Nice.

CYH-Where is the bottom? Sometimes the abrupt rally works, which is when we bought it. But this is what the failure looks like.

EMC-Treading water is our best hope.

ESV-If you are bearish on oil, you are probably wrong.

LOW-See CYH.

MHS-Still bullish, despite evidence pointing otherwise.

NTAP-If this is a rally, this looks like it will burst.

PDS-Short term ugliness, changes to long term beauty?

RTP-Needs to rally here.

TMX-Headed for disaster??

UMC-Still have hopes.

UPS-Nice day, what next?

Current Positions for 02/13/06

2006-02-12T07:48:00.000-08:00

CURRENT LONG OPEN POSITIONS
DATE.......................STOCK....................PRICE

12/22/05...............UPS........................77.00
12/27/05...............UMC.........................3.33
01/05/06................EMC.......................13.98
01/11/06...............LOW........................65.91
01/17/06...............CYH........................38.55
01/19/06..............MHS.........................56.40
01/23/06..............PDS.........................34.98
01/25/06..............TMX.........................24.00
02/01/06..............NTAP........................31.41
02/09/06..............BBD.........................37.08

*MEans half the original stake has been liquidated.

CURRENT SHORT OPEN POSITIONS
DATE,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,STOCK.......................PRICE

COMPLETED LONG POSITIONS THIS YEAR

STOCK .. DATE.......... PRICE....DATE SOLD ..SELL PRICE.....% ...DAYS HELD

NOV.......12/21/05......64.55.....01/06/06........68.42...............5.99...11
FD........12/08/05......67.35.....01/05/06........68.69...............1.99...28
ABX.......11/17/05......27.15.....01/10/06........29.38...............8.21...54
VLO.......01/04/06......53.60.....01/11/06........56.89...............6.14....7
ACL.......12/05/06.....143.46.....01/11/06.......135.59..............-5.49...37
BBD.......01/04/06......31.55.....01/12/06........32.37...............2.60....8
MCHP......01/06/06......33.10.....01/13/06........34.21...............3.35....7
MC........12/23/05......19.77.....01/17/06........21.36...............8.04...25
GS........01/10/06.....130.05.....01/17/06.......132.00...............1.50....7
*BRCM.....01/25/06......58.30.....01/27/06........69.69...............9.76....2
*CGA......01/24/06......11.15.....01/27.06........12.70...............8.29....3
COH.......01/10/06......34.00.....01/30/06........35.75...............5.14...20
STT.......01/19/06......59.00.....02/01/06........60.38...............2.33...13
AKZOY.....01/20/06......46.90.....02/02/06........49.09...............4.66...13
*CGA......01/24/06......11.15.....02/01/06........12.66...............6.32....8
*BRCM.....01/25/06......58.30.....01/30/06........67.70...............8.06....5

Long Return for 2006

Simplified year to date return: %76.89
Average Trade:4.80%
Average Days Held: 15.43 (including non trading days)
Total Trades:16

COMPLETED SHORT POSITIONS THIS YEAR

STOCK .. DATE.......... PRICE....EXIT DATE ..EXIT PRICE.....% ...DAYS HELD

KBH......12/01/05.......69.21...01/03/06......73.00.........-5.47...34
CHB......01/13/06.......13.46...01/17/06......13.12..........2.52....4
MBT......01/18/06.......37.00...01/18/06......36.36..........1.46....1
CWTR.....01/08/06.......21.00...01/23/06......20.38..........2.95...15
CMX......01/13/06.......51.55...01/24/06......50.66..........1.72....9
DCX......01/18/06.......52.75...01/24/06......54.74.........-3.77....6
CNX......01/30/06.......72.65...02/03/06......70.13..........3.46....4
NSM......02/02/06.......28.34...02/02/06......27.56..........2.75....1
SNV......01/31/06.......27.77...02/06/06......26.98..........2.84....7
HBAN.....02/02/06.......22.99...02/08/06......23.07..........-.34....5

Short Return for 2006

Simplified year to date return: %8.12
Average Trade:.81%
Averade Days Held:8.6

Total Trades:10

*MEANS HALF THE ORIGINAL STAKE WAS LIQUIDATED ON THIS DATE, THE RETURN THEREFORE WAS DIVIDED IN HALF FOR THE RETURN TO DATE CALCUALTIONS.

02/08/06

2006-02-07T19:03:00.000-08:00

We did indeed add RTP, about the worst call I have had in 3 months. Buying before the open especially when everything points down is just buying to be buying. Like the lonely spinster glued to QVC, with unopened Fed Ex packages every where. As long as you have unlimited bank, I guess there is nothing too wrong. It is just unfulfilling and self defeating.

The market is at oversold levels you see about once per month maybe twice. If things open up tomorrow, which at this writing it appears it will, we are looking at AMAT and MOT

02/07/06

2006-02-06T20:50:00.000-08:00

Covered SNV today, for our sixth profitable trade of the month. The average profit is down over 25% from January. Bought ESV, as it has a nice three touch trendline, and nice technicals. The market is very close to oversold, but seems to be teasing us here. The Bollinger bands could squeeze together somewhat before the next move. The last move up, now looks like a failure to make a new high.

We are eyeing RTP for the morning. Squeezing profits this last week has not been easy, but at the same time one must take what the market will give. And with the lack of enthusiasm one way or another, enthusiasm has waned.

02/06/06

2006-02-05T08:24:00.000-08:00

We did some short term short selling the last few days, exited two positions in two days. But still have two short positions open. We also took profits in some longs, but as is the usual case, the losses we let ride until a more beneficial exit can be found. The net result was short profits balanced those open positions and cushioned the blow the portfolio otherwise would have taken. Although I never consider a loss, a loss unitl the position is closed.

DOW-It is rather unclear from here, it has logcial room to go down further, if this is indeed a correction, or if it is a new down trend. If it turns up here, then it needs to make a new high for the upswing to continue, and this will have been just a hitch, a serious hitch but a hitch nonetheless. The fact that the rally did not make a new high, or touch the bollinger band, left me unfulfilled.

NASDAQ-Same as Dow, except its need to rally from here is more urent and profund, a further decline would indicate some direness.

CYH-Tried valiantly to get off the lower bollinger band, but it is like a line of Coke, to an addict right now.

EMC-Like the nasdaq needs to rally from here.

HBAN-Could have gotten in a little late on this short.

LOW-End in sight? Perhaps.

MHS-Nice bounce, this is really a start of a common pattern the last few months. Am beginning to like it as it has paid off handsomely in some situations.

NTAP-Just give it a reason.

SNV-Could fall a little more, profits right here are just about nil.

TMX-Lots of profit taking have occurred.

UMC-Looks pooised for a bounce.

UPS-Sliding off the end of the earth.

Current Positions for 02/06/06

2006-02-05T08:08:00.000-08:00

CURRENT LONG OPEN POSITIONS
DATE.......................STOCK....................PRICE

12/22/05...............UPS........................77.00
12/27/05...............UMC.........................3.33
01/05/06................EMC.......................13.98
01/11/06...............LOW........................65.91
01/17/06...............CYH........................38.55
01/19/06..............MHS.........................56.40
01/23/06..............PDS.........................34.98
01/25/06..............TMX.........................24.00
02/01/06..............NTAP........................31.41

*MEans half the original stake has been liquidated.

CURRENT SHORT OPEN POSITIONS
DATE,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,STOCK.......................PRICE

01/31/06................SNV........................27.77
02/02/06...............HBAN........................22.99

COMPLETED LONG POSITIONS THIS YEAR

STOCK .. DATE.......... PRICE....DATE SOLD ..SELL PRICE.....% ...DAYS HELD

NOV.......12/21/05......64.55.....01/06/06........68.42...............5.99...11
FD........12/08/05......67.35.....01/05/06........68.69...............1.99...28
ABX.......11/17/05......27.15.....01/10/06........29.38...............8.21...54
VLO.......01/04/06......53.60.....01/11/06........56.89...............6.14....7
ACL.......12/05/06.....143.46.....01/11/06.......135.59..............-5.49...37
BBD.......01/04/06......31.55.....01/12/06........32.37...............2.60....8
MCHP......01/06/06......33.10.....01/13/06........34.21...............3.35....7
MC........12/23/05......19.77.....01/17/06........21.36...............8.04...25
GS........01/10/06.....130.05.....01/17/06.......132.00...............1.50....7
*BRCM.....01/25/06......58.30.....01/27/06........69.69...............9.76....2
*CGA......01/24/06......11.15.....01/27.06........12.70...............8.29....3
COH.......01/10/06......34.00.....01/30/06........35.75...............5.14...20
STT.......01/19/06......59.00.....02/01/06........60.38...............2.33...13
AKZOY.....01/20/06......46.90.....02/02/06........49.09...............4.66...13
*CGA......01/24/06......11.15.....02/01/06........12.66...............6.32....8
*BRCM.....01/25/06......58.30.....01/30/06........67.70...............8.06....5

Long Return for 2006

Simplified year to date return: %76.89
Average Trade:4.80%
Average Days Held: 15.43 (including non trading days)
Total Trades:16

COMPLETED SHORT POSITIONS THIS YEAR

STOCK .. DATE.......... PRICE....EXIT DATE ..EXIT PRICE.....% ...DAYS HELD

KBH......12/01/05.......69.21...01/03/06......73.00.........-5.47...34
CHB......01/13/06.......13.46...01/17/06......13.12..........2.52....4
MBT......01/18/06.......37.00...01/18/06......36.36..........1.46....1
CWTR.....01/08/06.......21.00...01/23/06......20.38..........2.95...15
CMX......01/13/06.......51.55...01/24/06......50.66..........1.72....9
DCX......01/18/06.......52.75...01/24/06......54.74.........-3.77....6
CNX......01/30/06.......72.65...02/03/06......70.13..........3.46....4
NSM......02/02/06.......28.34...02/02/06......27.56..........2.75....1

Short Return for 2006

Simplified year to date return: %5.62
Average Trade:.70%
Averade Days Held:9.25

Total Trades:8

*MEANS HALF THE ORIGINAL STAKE WAS LIQUIDATED ON THIS DATE, THE RETURN THEREFORE WAS DIVIDED IN HALF FOR THE RETURN TO DATE CALCUALTIONS.

02/02/06

2006-02-01T20:42:00.000-08:00

Took profits today in CGA and STT. The morning was shaky at best and STT was not looking too strong. Bought NTAP later in the day.

The market ended strong today, much stronger than one would have anticipated. At the time of this writing Japan is rising strongly. The US market should go higher, and perhaps hug the upper Bollinger Band line for awhile. It is a little high in the process right now to enter to longs, but we have quite a few to go along for any potential ride.

As I stated at the beginning of the year, I am planning to derive art of my income next year from trading. And am trading for profits first. January proved to be a nice beginning to that goal. Fifteen out of nineteen trades were profitable with the average trades being virtually equal on both sides of the coin. February already has two profitable trades, it is always nice to play from ahead rather than behind.

02/01/06

2006-01-31T19:03:00.000-08:00

Stopped out of COH, CGA gapped below our limit, but we stayed with it, as after the gap, it had a very narrow trading range. Also shorted SNV. And if we trade tomorrow we'll profbably short HBAN. Giving us two banks shorted, but look at the patterns and you'll see why.

Wall Street Journal talked of Greenspan's legacy today. They talked about his career of ambvilence and opaque language. He did not predict nor promise, just guided, through crises, through placidity, through eighteen years.

And that I say is the only way to trade. Let no man's opinion become your own. Freedom from systems and defined dogma allows trader the latitude to operate. Once you define your trading style, or follow an algorithmic system or develop an opinion about the coming market. You not only have to defend your style, but you also must trade profitably to prove the superiority of your beliefs. This is a lesson I have learned several times, but hopefully after last fall have it down pat. And let me tell you it is very nice.

I will be closely guarding the profits of AKZOY and STT, tomorrow. With GOOG crashing the world in general in a funk, and my guess is Wall Street isn't going to be gaga over Bush tonight. Throw in Iran, and it will take some very good news indeed to rally tomorrow. Is this a hitch in the rally or a correction? The Dow looks tired, NASDAQ looks like it still has some legs, but they could come later.

01/30/06

2006-01-30T20:52:00.000-08:00

Sold the rest of BRCM today, sold short CNX. My old nemesis.

All eyse are on Lord Alan and his farewell tour. It is actually the fed speel we want to here. If it is negative will be shorting SNV. If market likes Lord Alan might be NTAP, but am farily overweighted long right now. And some them don't act like they want to go higher.

01/30/06

2006-01-29T08:17:00.000-08:00

We sold half of our interest in BRCM and CGA late Friday afternoon. If something is too good to be true it probably is. We also are placing stop-limit orders on the reamining shares at about 3% below their Friday highs. And also am raising the stop-limit on COH.

Was that rally a new up leg or just a correction from the last down leg? Tune in Tuesday for more. The Fed meets Tuesday and eveyone will be chomping at the bit to read the tea leaves in their cryptic statement they release. What power they have, they single handedly hold the world's economic balls in their hands like no one else in history. And they give thesee little teaser statements every six weeks, and we can't fire them or impeach them, we just hope we please them. Like neolithic gods.

Chart reading:

DOW: Still looks relatively healthy here.

Nasdaq: Looks relatively healthy here. Long term there might be some exhaustion creeping in.

AKZOY: Fairly early in a nice steady long trend.

BRCM: Sometimes you get lucky.

CGA: Lightening can strike twice. Not convinced this doesn't run up further.

COH: Don't really like the pattern, but are going to give back the profits?? What do you think?

CYH: Like UPS isn't really coming to the party, yet looks like it should have.

EMC: A nasty little down trend starting? Spends way too much time hugging that lower bollinger band.

LOW: It will follow the market, nothing more and maybe a little less.

MHS: Encouraging, could be gaining strength.

PDS: Belive it or not I like this one, will be stock to have some patience with now.

STT: Humpty dumpty that was quite a fall. Might just take the little profits I have and run.

TMX: Suddenly not as enamored with this purchase.

UMC: Think it will break out, unless there is a collapse.

UPS; Survived the week.

Current Positions for 1/30/06

2006-01-29T08:01:00.000-08:00

CURRENT LONG OPEN POSITIONS
DATE.......................STOCK....................PRICE

12/22/05...............UPS........................77.00
12/27/05...............UMC.........................3.33
01/05/06................EMC.......................13.98
01/10/06...............COH........................34.00
01/11/06...............LOW........................65.91
01/17/06...............CYH........................38.55
01/19/06..............MHS.........................56.40
01/19/06..............STT.........................59.00
01/20/06..............AKZOY.......................46.90
01/23/06..............PDS.........................34.98
*01/24/06.............CGA.........................11.15
*01/25/06.............BRCM........................58.30
01/25/06..............TMX.........................24.00

*MEans half the original stake has been liquidated.

CURRENT SHORT OPEN POSITIONS
DATE,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,STOCK.......................PRICE

COMPLETED LONG POSITIONS THIS YEAR

STOCK .. DATE.......... PRICE....DATE SOLD ..SELL PRICE.....% ...DAYS HELD

NOV.......12/21/05......64.55.....01/06/06........68.42...............5.99...11
FD........12/08/05......67.35.....01/05/06........68.69...............1.99...28
ABX.......11/17/05......27.15.....01/10/06........29.38...............8.21...54
VLO.......01/04/06......53.60.....01/11/06........56.89...............6.14....7
ACL.......12/05/06.....143.46.....01/11/06.......135.59..............-5.49...37
BBD.......01/04/06......31.55.....01/12/06........32.37...............2.60....8
MCHP......01/06/06......33.10.....01/13/06........34.21...............3.35....7
MC........12/23/05......19.77.....01/17/06........21.36...............8.04...25
GS........01/10/06.....130.05.....01/17/06.......132.00...............1.50....7
*BRCM.....01/25/06......58.30.....01/27/06........69.69...............9.76....2
*CGA......01/24/06......11.15.....01/27.06........12.70...............8.29....3

Long Return for 2006

Simplified year to date return: %50.38
Average Trade:4.58%
Average Days Held: 17.08 (including non trading days)
Total Trades:11

COMPLETED SHORT POSITIONS THIS YEAR

STOCK .. DATE.......... PRICE....EXIT DATE ..EXIT PRICE.....% ...DAYS HELD

KBH......12/01/05.......69.21...01/03/06......73.00.........-5.47...34
CHB......01/13/06.......13.46...01/17/06......13.12..........2.52....4
MBT......01/18/06.......37.00...01/18/06......36.36..........1.46....1
CWTR.....01/08/06.......21.00...01/23/06......20.38..........2.95...15
CMX......01/13/06.......51.55...01/24/06......50.66..........1.72....9
DCX......01/18/06.......52.75...01/24/06......54.74.........-3.77....6

Short Return for 2006

Simplified year to date return: %-.59
Average Trade:-.10%
Averade Days Held:11.5

Total Trades:6

*MEANS HALF THE ORIGIANL STAKE WAS LIQUIDATED ON THIS DATE, THE RETURN THEREFORE WAS DIVIDED IN HALF FOR THE RETURN TO DATE CALCUALTIONS.

01/25/06

2006-01-25T20:02:00.000-08:00

Again the market opened and nobody noticed. The longer we keep support here, the better the chance the next move is up.

Someone with more ingenuity and time than I should do a study on the daily comments made by market pontificators. The ones CNN, Wall St. Journal etc. love to quote. Take these comments and see how they reflect that days' market action. And see how the market fares in the next six months, compared to these wise men's predictions. Then see when these pontificators make a contrsting comment, and mark the action that day too.

Bearish comments were everywhere after Friday's bearish close. Check the WSJ. A clever reader should mark down the comments and see where we are in six months. According to the pontificators we will be down. Then see how long it takes each pontificator to make a contrasting remark, and issue a bullish statement, the market, of course will be up that day.

My point is, comments mirror action 100% of the time.

I had planned to write the above on Monday, but ran out of time and ambition. Today was a case and point. The market failed to rally because oil was lower. Now go back and see why the market tanked late last week...because oil was higher.

01/24/06

2006-01-24T18:12:00.000-08:00

Covered both DCX and CMX. To the emailer writer who laughed at my errant prediction about autos not leading the new rally, well they were not actually leading the rally but point well taken, opinos are expensive aren't they?

Well, here is another one buying TMX and BRCM. Have a gut feeling this rally will soon re-start. World makret sacting strongly, and Iran issue quiet for the moment.

01/24/06

2006-01-23T21:23:00.000-08:00

Stopped out on CWTR. DCX gapped above stop limit, but left it open, really not convinced the autosare going to soar out of here, and well if they do, they'll some of my longs with them. CMX is still open although the sharp trader should have taken profits today.

Buying CGA at the open.

The market opened today and nobody noticed. Not convinced we rally from here, but each day we don't make further lows, puts the odds in the favor of a rally.

1/23/06

2006-01-22T18:40:00.000-08:00

Buying PDS at the open, relatively undervalued oil drilling stock. Oil has too much upside to be ignored.

01/23/06

2006-01-22T09:10:00.000-08:00

We have put stop limits on all three of our shorts right above the current price. I would be surprised if any of them survive the day.

Many traders buy right here. And if you are one of those MC would be a nice pick up. I prefer the middle 60% of any swing. Even the middle 60% of a long term trend is the easiest to pick. Tops and bottoms are expensive to predict.

The financial media is fond of saying this bull market began in 2003 and is getting very old. But if you look at a five year monthly chart of the Dow, one see the up trend really ended in the last quarter of 2004. We have been flat since then, which is neither bullish or bearish I guess. Although I bet most people think of a flat market as bearish. I do think the market will see ne highs alnong the way. Although they will be tough going, the situation in Iraq shows no signs of being resolved any times soon, and the oil prices seem stubborn as a mad housewife.

On the other hand quick and vicious corrections are sypmtoms of both tops and bottoms. Was this quick and vicious? Only time and relativity will tell.

Charts as I see them:

Dow: Would seem this is the resistance level short term, any lower from here, and we all get to re-define the market. Happens often enoguh though doesn't it.

Nasdaq: If this is indeed an up trend this is the vey logical spot for it to resume.

AKZOY: See nasdaq

CMX-This short actually could head lower, any bounce here would be technical. But what the hell given our short record last year, quick profits are what we are after.

COH-A nasty chart indeed, some of the underlying technicals are stronger than you wuld expect though.

CWTR-Logical profit taking spot for shorts.

DCX-Underlying technicals still are weak, but we're out here.

EMC--This is starting to look like it has peaked, next rally and we're out.

LOW-See EMC.

MHS-So-so pattern at best.

STT-Held up well should go higher.

UMC-See STT.

UPS-See STT and UMC.

Current Positions for 1/23/06

2006-01-22T09:00:00.000-08:00

CURRENT LONG OPEN POSITIONS
DATE.......................STOCK....................PRICE

12/22/05...............UPS........................77.00
12/27/05...............UMC.........................3.33
01/05/06................EMC.......................13.98
01/10/06...............COH........................34.00
01/11/06...............LOW........................65.91
01/17/06...............CYH........................38.55
01/19/06..............MHS.........................56.40
01/19/06..............STT.........................59.00
01/20/06..............AKZOY.......................46.90

CURRENT SHORT OPEN POSITIONS
DATE,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,STOCK.......................PRICE
01/13/06..............CMX.........................51.55
01/13/06..............CHB.........................13.46
01/18/06..............DCX.........................52.75
01/08/06.............CWTR.........................21.00

COMPLETED LONG POSITIONS THIS YEAR

STOCK .. DATE.......... PRICE....DATE SOLD ..SELL PRICE.....% ...DAYS HELD

NOV.......12/21/05......64.55.....01/06/06........68.42...............5.99...11
FD........12/08/05......67.35.....01/05/06........68.69...............1.99...28
ABX.......11/17/05......27.15.....01/10/06........29.38...............8.21...54
VLO.......01/04/06......53.60.....01/11/06........56.89...............6.14....7
ACL.......12/05/06.....143.46.....01/11/06.......135.59..............-5.49...37
BBD.......01/04/06......31.55.....01/12/06........32.37...............2.60....8
MCHP......01/06/06......33.10.....01/13/06........34.21...............3.35....7
MC........12/23/05......19.77.....01/17/06........21.36...............8.04...25
GS........01/10/06.....130.05.....01/17/06.......132.00...............1.50....7

Long Return for 2006

Simplified year to date return: %32.33
Average Trade:3.59%
Average Days Held: 20.32 (including non trading days)
Total Trades:9

COMPLETED SHORT POSITIONS THIS YEAR

STOCK .. DATE.......... PRICE....EXIT DATE ..EXIT PRICE.....% ...DAYS HELD

KBH......12/01/05.......69.21...01/03/06......73.00.........-5.47...34
CHB......01/13/06.......13.46...01/17/06......13.12..........2.52....4
MBT......01/18/06.......37.00...01/18/06......36.36..........1.46....1

Short Return for 2006

Simplified year to date return: %-1.49
Average Trade:-.50%
Averade Days Held:13

Total Trades:3

*MEANS HALF THE ORIGIANL STAKE WAS LIQUIDATED ON THIS DATE, THE RETURN THEREFORE WAS DIVIDED IN HALF FOR THE RETURN TO DATE CALCUALTIONS.

1/18/06

2006-01-18T19:24:00.000-08:00

Shorted all three stocks that were mentioned yesterday. Already out of MBT, as was looking for quick hits. This whole thing smells like a dip in an on going rally. Wish we would have covered DCX, but by the time there was an uptick, there was really only a workable profit at the daily low, and did not pull the trigger.

Have MHS to buy in the morning, a very low volatility stock, but will counter balance the short loss we are carrying in CMX, which is rallying somewhat, although longer term it still looks bearish. Not expecting any 35% loss like we had in one short trade last year. Won't stand for it, now that trading is income.

which brings up a valid point. Trading for income isn't quite the same as trading correctly is it? One is eager to take profits. Although I am not trading rent money, I still have a goal of profitable trading every month. And sometimes it is wise to cash in, and bank the money like in 'Weakest Link'.

There are two opposing wisdoms in trading, one is don't be impulsive, follow your rules. And one is listen to your gut. They really contradict each other, as your gut is telling you something about your current positions are uncomfortable. Either you need to jump in or jump out, or tweak something to make things more comfortable. There is a brilliant book called ''Blink'; by Malcolm Gladwell that discusses the thing learned in the blink of an eye. Like a stock chart, why I like certain patterns is often times harder to explain than the fact I do. And the fact I do is all set up in the first look at it.

But being impulsive is something else altogether. An impulsive move really does nothing to settle the gut. It is just a reaction to the current circumstance that you wish to change. Impulsive moves are not the better moves they are just different moves.

1/18/06

2006-01-17T19:15:00.000-08:00

We liquidated the following positions CHB, GS, MC. All for profits.

DCX, MBT, CWTR are all short candidates for tomorrow. We checked oil and all the sub-industries, but found it over bought. Not that oil isn't immune to rallying through over bought territory. The top was apparent when there was very little to buy, at the end of the week.

We will wait until pre-market before entering shorts if any.

1/17/06

2006-01-15T18:18:00.000-08:00

Much has happened, busy Thursday and Friday. Sold BBD for the smallest of profits, but it too had a range expansion reverse, at the top of the upper Bollinger Band, with the market acting spooky while over bought, thought it best to lock in profits, however small. Was also stopped out on MCHP.

Shorted CHB, which already has a bankable profit and will be guarding it like a jealous savage on Tuesday. Also shorted CMX. Placed stop limit on GS at 132. And bumped up MC to 22, doubtful we'll need it though.

Buying CYH at the open on Tuesday.

DOW-Looks slightly bearish here, although it could resume upwards, there are some technical divergences.

NASDAQ-No matter how you slice it, that was a rally. A nice launching, could see it resuming here after a brething period.

CHB-All that pressure is elling pressure.

CMX-One more up day and we are out.

EMC-Sniffing at a rally?

GS-Looks good, but we are vicious about protecting profits hence our stop-limit at 132.

LOW-Needs to correct this hesitation and now.

MC-3,2,1, blast off.

UMC-Should be at support here.

UPS-see above.

Current Postions for 1/16/06

2006-01-15T14:35:00.000-08:00

CURRENT LONG OPEN POSITIONS
DATE.......................STOCK....................PRICE

12/22/05...............UPS........................77.00
12/23/05...............MC.........................19.77
12/27/05...............UMC.........................3.33
01/04/06................BBD.......................31.55
01/05/06................EMC.......................13.98
01/10/06...............COH........................34.00
01/10/06................GS.......................130.05
01/11/06...............LOW........................65.91

CURRENT SHORT OPEN POSITIONS
DATE,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,STOCK.......................PRICE
01/13/06..............CMX.........................51.55
01/13/06..............CHB.........................13.46

COMPLETED LONG POSITIONS THIS YEAR

STOCK .. DATE.......... PRICE....DATE SOLD ..SELL PRICE.....% ...DAYS HELD

NOV.......12/21/05......64.55.....01/06/06........68.42...............5.99...11
FD........12/08/05......67.35.....01/05/06........68.69...............1.99...28
ABX.......11/17/05......27.15.....01/10/06........29.38...............8.21...54
VLO.......01/04/06......53.60.....01/11/06........56.89...............6.14....7
ACL.......12/05/06.....143.46.....01/11/06.......135.59..............-5.49...37
BBD.......01/04/06......31.55.....01/12/06........32.37...............2.60....8
MCHP......01/06/06......33.10.....01/13/06........34.21...............3.35....7

Long Return for 2006

Simplified year to date return: %22.79
Average Trade:3.25%
Average Days Held: 21.57 (including non trading days)
Total Trades:7

COMPLETED SHORT POSITIONS THIS YEAR

STOCK .. DATE.......... PRICE....EXIT DATE ..EXIT PRICE.....% ...DAYS HELD

KBH......12/01/05.......69.21...01/03/06......73.00.........-5.47...34

Short Return for 2006

Simplified year to date return: %-5.47
Average Trade:%--5.47
Averade Days Held:34

Total Trades:1

*MEANS HALF THE ORIGIANL STAKE WAS LIQUIDATED ON THIS DATE, THE RETURN THEREFORE WAS DIVIDED IN HALF FOR THE RETURN TO DATE CALCUALTIONS.

01/12/05

2006-01-11T16:56:00.000-08:00

Stopped out on ACL today. Placed a stop-limit on MCHP at 34.1, and on MC at 20.75.

MC has appeared about to burst for days now. We'll see if it continues, but at least we are protected.

It is funny the nuances of trading. I have a stop-limit system in place for protecting profits, it is strictly mechanical and it seems to work about as well as if I do them myself. I do override it at times, usually stricter. Even when I am taking a loss, I use the system as a guideline using the last low as the baseline, and figure the percantage profit as if I had bought it at the last low.

I remember reading, I think it was in the first 'MArket Wizards', from that arrogant turtle guy I believe. The guy that damn near went broke, or maybe he did. But he said as if it was fact that taking profits is exactly how you go broke, and doing what feels good is rarely the right thing to do. That statement has stuck with me since the book originally came out, and it still effects. Perhaps I am bringing it out in the open to exorcise myself from this demon. But the statement is sheer ignorance, like a weather forecastor when he states his prediction as fact. There is not only one way to trade turlte dude, tarders get rich doing things totally different then the way you did. And you probably should have taken that last profit, as it cut your net worth in half.

Thanks for giving me the time to rant. There were no good buys, that I could find, the market is acting extra-ordinarily healthy, firther small gains and consolidation and we'll see where we are. Knowing the short-sightedness though we'll probably be on a brand new tangent with a whole new outlook on the economy. Such is the business of reading tea leaves.

1/10/06

2006-01-10T18:19:00.000-08:00

Apparently I had the dates off on previous post or two, but the careful reader undoubtedly figured it out. They are posted in order for crying out loud.

Buying LOW at the open. Stopped out of ABX today, and am selling VLO at the open, I had the purchasing price listed incorrectly (too high) and the volatile action today would have taken out the correct price limit. I do not like range expansion while touching the bollinger band, it smacks of greed on the top and panic on the bottom. While I do not think tops and bottoms are mirrors I do think there can be blow off tops, like I know there are blow off bottoms.

I posted a while ago that a portfolio is like a team and how many Michael Jordan's does a team need? Only one or perhaps two superstars and the rest are role players, a suppostive cast if you will.

That is a bad analogy, good trading analogies are harder than good trading.

Of course one wants every trade to be a slam dunk, why else bother with it? But what one wants is for them to peak at various times. Easing in and out of positions rotating industries, some might even mirror each other like oil and transportations used to. But eventually every trade should have it's moment in the sun. A hi-tech might gain 15%, while an insurance 5%, but the risk is different as well.

The point is both stocks would be soaring above the crowd, out stretched hand reaching for the basket, tongue waggling, in their own due time in a perfect world... That was another bad analogy wasn't it?

1/09/06

2006-01-09T18:15:00.000-08:00

Raised stop-limit on ACL to 135.5. Am buying GS and COH at the open.

Raising the standards with stock selection, and the realization that more trades does not equal more profits. Part of what needs to be accomplished this year is making a profit every month. As next year trading will be a chunk of my income.

There was a trade Sunday I probably would have taken last month. It was a trade of interest and whether or not it achieves a profit isn't really the story. The fact is the portfolio had two stop-limits and was 80% invested in a strong market that had reached short term over bought. Prudent trading forced me to sit that one out. MOre trades do not equal more dollars.

The difference with today's trades, is that they appear ready to boom. The market might consildate, but more than likely it will continue to rotate for a little while longer, these types of rallies usually last a good 10 trading days, before changing their minds.

01/08/06

2006-01-08T11:22:00.000-08:00

We are raising our stop-limit on ABX to 29.32, and placing one on ACL at 134. There were numerous achanges to the portfolio, please consult the open positions post. After this week only 2006 results will be displayed.

A new longer term indicator will be used starting this year, it will be a confirming indicator and would definitely kept me out of a couple of trades such as GRMN. The whole horting process has yet to be examined but will be. Placing stops in initial orders is being questioned for shorts, as it might have helped us. Curb some losses and free up some cash quicker. The stops will have to be robust though to allow some room for correction and then falling, however it seems based on this year's results there will be plenty of room. Also will look into a confirming indicator to go along with the shorting process.

DOW-Nice pattern, follow through seems likely. Strong time of year.
NASDAQ-HAs already folloed through, perhaps osme consoldiation along the way, but higher highs definetly looks probable.

ABX-Perhaps a bit over extended here, but all signs point higher sooner rather than later.

ACL-Nice bounce from the correction, have placed a stop-limit, just in case it has ran out of legs.

BBD-Nice work, recovery could use more volume, and I'm not a big proponent of volume, but a little hesitant here.

EMC-If that was a selling exhaustion we will be OK. Huge volume, and daily range.

MC-Can't help but like that pattern, again voume would be nice, it is on the verge of launching, and it is always nice to see more volume for sure.

MCHP-See above.

UMC-Excellent potential here, nice volume, nice pop, really, really like this one a lot.

UPS-Need a rotation of favorites for traders to notice this one, but think still it might come, doubt we have a break down here, just biding time.

VLO-Looks good.

Current Positions for 1/09/06

2006-01-08T09:18:00.001-08:00

CURRENT LONG OPEN POSITIONS
DATE.......................STOCK....................PRICE

11/17/05................ABX.......................27.15
12/05/05................ACL......................143.46
12/22/05...............UPS........................77.00
12/23/05...............MC.........................19.77
12/27/05...............UMC.........................3.33
01/04/06................VLO.......................53.60
01/04/06................BBD.......................31.55
01/05/06................EMC.......................13.98
01/06/06................MCHP......................31.06

CURRENT SHORT OPEN POSITIONS
DATE,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,STOCK.......................PRICE

COMPLETED LONG POSITIONS THIS YEAR

STOCK .. DATE.......... PRICE....DATE SOLD ..SELL PRICE.....% ...DAYS HELD
ALL.......04/04/05 .....53.71.....05/13/05........55.62 .............3.00....39
OXY.......04/27/05 .....70.95.....06/08/05........73.73........... ..3.91....42
KBH ......05/25/05......64.15.....06/06/05........66.68..............3.94....12
BCR ......06/01/05......67.65.....08/03/05........64.40 ............-5.08....64
CIT...... 06/01/05......43.04.....07/19/05........44.54 .............3.48 ...49
GSF ......06/07/05......37.89 ....06/13/05........39.21 .............3.49.... 6
HIG...... 06/08/05......74.63.....08/10/05........78.31 .............4.93 ...62
HET...... 06/14/05......73.25.... 07/25/05........76.55..............4.50 ...41
WFT.......07/26/05......63.65.....08/11/05........65.68 .............3.19....17
TS........08/23/05.....101.25.....09/07/05.......117.00.............15.55....15
MBT.......08/15/05......37.75.....09/13/05........40.00..............5.63....29
CIT.......09/01/05......45.13.....09/20/05........46.45..............2.92....19
BBD.......09/20/05......45.35.....09/27/05........47.20..............4.07.....7
STD.......09/21/05......12.51.....10/03/05........13.00..............3.91....12
*CNX.......09/29/05.....74.40.....10/04/05........78.12..............4.99....5
ABT.......07/27/05......46.05.....10/20/05........43.25.............-6.08....85
SNDK......10/17/05......50.20.....10/25/05........55.42..............10.4....8
CSR.......09/27/05......44.49.....10/28/05........43.41.............-2.43....31
SHW.......07/05/05......47.00.....11/02/05........42.32.............-9.95....118
RIO.......10/11/05......42.00.....11/04/05........42.75..............1.78....24
A.........10/03/05......33.09.....11/07/05........32.05.............-3.14....34
MGA.......08/15/05......75.50.....11/08/05........69.51.............-7.93....84
BBT.......08/22/05......41.15.....11/14/05........43.00..............4.49....83
MFE.......10/03/05......31.42.....11/21/05........29.25.............-6.90....49
*CNX......09/29/05......74.40.....12/06/05........64.26.............-13.6....72
VFC.......07/20/05......61.44.....12/13/05........57.01.............-7.26....146
UNH.......12/02/05......61.47.....12/19/05........62.75..............2.08.....17
SNDK......12/13/05......51.20.....12/20/05........58.00..............13.28....7
NT........12/15/05.......3.07.....12/19/05.........3.18...............3.58....4
UBB.......12/21/05......63.00.....12/27/05........64.93...............3.06....6
GRMN......10/25/05......67.97.....12/27/05........66.50..............-2.16...63
NOV.......12/21/05......64.55.....01/06/06........68.42...............5.99...11
FD........12/08/05......67.35.....01/05/06........68.69...............1.99...28

Long Return for 2005

Simplified year to date return: %46.05
Average Trade:1.48%
Average Days Held: 40.2 (including non trading days)
Total Trades:31

COMPLETED SHORT POSITIONS THIS YEAR

STOCK .. DATE.......... PRICE....EXIT DATE ..EXIT PRICE.....% ...DAYS HELD
PHM......09/14/05.......44.99....09/20/05.....44.05..........2.08...6
CIN......09/14/05.......43.88....09/26/05.....43.18..........1.59...12
HIG......09/21/05.......74.58....09/30/05.....77.15..........-3.44..9
LEN......10/05/05.......59.15...10/06/05......57.00......... 3.63...1
GSF......09/26/05.......44.95...10/07/05......40.97..........8.85...11
BBY......10/27/05.......43.42...12/06/05......49.70........-14.46...40
MRVL....10/28/05........41.89...12/22/05......56.47........-34.80...55
BXP......11/02/05.......67.31...12/14/05......75.75........-12.50...40
OXY......10/28/05.......74.63...12/28/05......80.35.........-7.64....61
KBH......12/01/05.......69.21...01/03/06......73.00.........-5.47...34

Short Return for 2005

Simplified year to date return: %-56.69
Average Trade:%-6.28
Averade Days Held:26.1

Total Trades:9

*MEANS HALF THE ORIGIANL STAKE WAS LIQUIDATED ON THIS DATE, THE RETURN THEREFORE WAS DIVIDED IN HALF FOR THE RETURN TO DATE CALCUALTIONS.

01/05/06

2006-01-04T16:15:00.000-08:00

Buying EMC at open. Stop-limits raised on ABX to 28.78, and on NOV to 68.42, and placed a new stop-limit on FD at 68.6. FD is awfully tight, and not much profit, but we'll take it, to start the new trading year.

Why, I was asked, don't I like this pattern? (Down and Nasdaq) First off, I know very rapid rallies take off from these patterns, like a launching. But it smacks of impulsiveness, which no trader likes, as it is their worst enemy. But sometimes you have to jump on the launching even if it is an impulse. Luckily was in great position at the launching, and now we can takes profits at the first sputter. There also seems to be a helathy dose of bearishness still out there, which propels rallies as well.

Will be publishing updated positions, and new lessons learned about shorting when time permits, suffice it to say one can not be too bold about a trading strategy that erased all the long profits. And after being up over 70% for the year, and two previous years of 50%+ profits. But that is the cost of tuition at Traders U, have I graduated, hopefully. Stopped learning? Never. Stop learning, stop asking questions and you will not make it. Curiosity and innovativeness keep companies, minds and life great.

01/03/06

2006-01-03T19:56:00.000-08:00

Buying VLO and BBD at the open. Stop-limits on ABX at 28, and NOV at 66.79.

Good day today, but not enough to convince me the markets next move is up, let's just say it was a start, a nice start. Although generally I don't like this pattern, given the circumstances, the next move being up is more likely than it was yesterday.

Remember the coming crash in oil stocks? My email box was full of messages of what to do if you were still in oil, and the kept coming at every weakness oil had. I, too was on that bandwagon, and paid for it. That is why opinions are expensive, once you have you just might have to admit you were wrong, and that is so difficult it drives more traders to starvation than any other mistake.

I like BBD and most things south of the border. But that isn't an opinion, it is a feeling.

01/03/06

2006-01-02T21:16:00.000-08:00

Setting a stop-limit on KBH at 73. Really need to review this year's shorts and get an idea of how shorting should be done in the future. First year shorts were included in the portfolio, and they sank it.

The market ended the year with an inaudible yawn. Closing at the bottom of the latest range, it either sets new short term lows or rallies from here. The longer it maintains this narrow bollinger band range, the higher the odds it rallies. The Nasdaq looks like the beginning of a new down turn, and so does the Dow although not as established.

With a stop-limit on the portfolio's only short and wads of dough on the sidelines, affording to wait for clearer signals is a nice luxury.

12/29/05

2005-12-28T19:20:00.000-08:00

Got stopped out on OXY today.

Absolutely nothing happened today. Was interesting that I said the Nasdaq was not looking to rally here on Sunday, (Paraphrase), but went ahead and bought anyway. Perhaps the demsie of the portfolio has to be more closely related to the letting down of one's guard. Here we are with a stock worth less than it was, and I was not seeing the Nasdaq ready to rally when it was purchased.

That is how winning streaks are ended, by stopping doing the things that got you there in the first place.

12/28/05

2005-12-27T18:35:00.000-08:00

Stopped out on GRMN and UBB today. Placed a stop-limit on OXY at 80.35.

Dreary NASDAQ pattern noted yesterday carried the day. Plus post 3 day weekend. Light volume, although usually do not place a lot of emphasis on volume, but is worth noting due to holiday week.

Nasdaq close to logical support, Dow is there. If it ralies tomorrow will probably look to buy. The drop seemed excessive.

12/27/05

2005-12-26T18:31:00.000-08:00

Buying UMC at the open, bumped up GRMN stop limit to 66.50

Trading is about making money, not competition, not gaining revenge, not proving your ability to gaze into the future, not that you are smarter than the other guys. One question should be asked before placing every trade-Do you think this trade will make you money?

Dow-Looks good with room to go upward.

Nasdaq- Looks anemic, needs to rally.

ABX-Either way here, but upward looks more likely.

ACL-Re-evaluated, playing the waiting game here.

FD-Looking more positive.

GRMN-Proving once again patience in long positions is well worth it.

KBH_Proving once again patience in short positions is not the answer. Will dump on the next slightest weakness.

MC-Nice base pattern, bounce likely. The last correct slightly higher than the previous, real nice sign.

NOV-Proving once again I have no knack for trading oil stocks, at least no since the no brainer days of 6 months ago.

OXY-Looks bearish.

UBB-Still looks good. Could be in for a nice up trend ride.

UPS-Still like this pattern.

Open Postions for 12/27/05

2005-12-26T18:16:00.000-08:00

CURRENT LONG OPEN POSITIONS
DATE.......................STOCK....................PRICE

10/25/05................GRMN......................67.97
11/17/05................ABX.......................27.15
12/05/05................ACL......................143.46
12/08/05................FD........................67.35
12/21/05...............NOV........................64.55
12/21/05...............UBB........................63.00
12/22/05...............UPS........................77.00
12/23/05...............MC.........................19.77

CURRENT SHORT OPEN POSITIONS
DATE,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,STOCK.......................PRICE

10/28/05...............OXY.........................74.63

12/07/05...............KBH.........................69.21

COMPLETED LONG POSITIONS THIS YEAR

STOCK .. DATE.......... PRICE....DATE SOLD ..SELL PRICE.....% ...DAYS HELD
ALL.......04/04/05 .....53.71.....05/13/05........55.62 .............3.00....39
OXY.......04/27/05 .....70.95.....06/08/05........73.73........... ..3.91....42
KBH ......05/25/05......64.15.....06/06/05........66.68..............3.94....12
BCR ......06/01/05......67.65.....08/03/05........64.40 ............-5.08....64
CIT...... 06/01/05......43.04.....07/19/05........44.54 .............3.48 ...49
GSF ......06/07/05......37.89 ....06/13/05........39.21 .............3.49.... 6
HIG...... 06/08/05......74.63.....08/10/05........78.31 .............4.93 ...62
HET...... 06/14/05......73.25.... 07/25/05........76.55..............4.50 ...41
WFT.......07/26/05......63.65.....08/11/05........65.68 .............3.19....17
TS........08/23/05.....101.25.....09/07/05.......117.00.............15.55....15
MBT.......08/15/05......37.75.....09/13/05........40.00..............5.63....29
CIT.......09/01/05......45.13.....09/20/05........46.45..............2.92....19
BBD.......09/20/05......45.35.....09/27/05........47.20..............4.07.....7
STD.......09/21/05......12.51.....10/03/05........13.00..............3.91....12
*CNX.......09/29/05.....74.40.....10/04/05........78.12..............4.99....5
ABT.......07/27/05......46.05.....10/20/05........43.25.............-6.08....85
SNDK......10/17/05......50.20.....10/25/05........55.42..............10.4....8
CSR.......09/27/05......44.49.....10/28/05........43.41.............-2.43....31
SHW.......07/05/05......47.00.....11/02/05........42.32.............-9.95....118
RIO.......10/11/05......42.00.....11/04/05........42.75..............1.78....24
A.........10/03/05......33.09.....11/07/05........32.05.............-3.14....34
MGA.......08/15/05......75.50.....11/08/05........69.51.............-7.93....84
BBT.......08/22/05......41.15.....11/14/05........43.00..............4.49....83
MFE.......10/03/05......31.42.....11/21/05........29.25.............-6.90....49
*CNX......09/29/05......74.40.....12/06/05........64.26.............-13.6....72
VFC.......07/20/05......61.44.....12/13/05........57.01.............-7.26....146
UNH.......12/02/05......61.47.....12/19/05........62.75..............2.08.....17
SNDK......12/13/05......51.20.....12/20/05........58.00..............13.28....7
NT........12/15/05.......3.07.....12/19/05.........3.18...............3.58....4

Long Return for 2005

Simplified year to date return: %45.15
Average Trade:1.56%
Average Days Held: 40.6 (including non trading days)
Total Trades:29

COMPLETED SHORT POSITIONS THIS YEAR

STOCK .. DATE.......... PRICE....EXIT DATE ..EXIT PRICE.....% ...DAYS HELD
PHM......09/14/05.......44.99....09/20/05.....44.05..........2.08...6
CIN......09/14/05.......43.88....09/26/05.....43.18..........1.59...12
HIG......09/21/05.......74.58....09/30/05.....77.15..........-3.44..9
LEN......10/05/05.......59.15...10/06/05......57.00......... 3.63...1
GSF......09/26/05.......44.95...10/07/05......40.97..........8.85...11
BBY......10/27/05.......43.42...12/06/05......49.70........-14.46...40
MRVL....10/28/05........41.89...12/22/05......56.47........-34.80...55
BXP......11/02/05.......67.31...12/14/05......75.75........-12.50...40

Short Return for 2005

Simplified year to date return: %-49.05
Average Trade:%-6.13
Averade Days Held:21.74

Total Trades:8

*MEANS HALF THE ORIGIANL STAKE WAS LIQUIDATED ON THIS DATE, THE RETURN THEREFORE WAS DIVIDED IN HALF FOR THE RETURN TO DATE CALCUALTIONS.

12/23/05

2005-12-22T15:19:00.000-08:00

Placed a stop-limit order on UBB at 64.90 and on GRMN at 66. Also am buying MC at the open.

Was stopped out on MRVL the short position, wish had set limits tighter. The loss was just this side of catastrophic, and will probably sink the trading into the red for the year. Was up over 70% at one point, tons of slaps on the back via email and from colleagues. It all went straight to the starving ego, and an aura of invincibility set in. Auras are bad for trading. Shortly after, you acquire an aura, you will be force fed humble pie, until you are either broke (been down that path) or say thank you for the lesson. I see for now the error of my ways. Please allow me to continue trading while I still have a pittance left. OK it is more than a pittance, I guess, but seriously the best thing I did was take a huge chunk out and pay down the mortgage, out of harms way. Let me rebuild through profits.

A good trader automatically trades smaller when they hit a losing streak, I took temptation out of the way.

12/22/05

2005-12-21T21:01:00.000-08:00

Buying UPS at the open. Also placed a stop-limit cover order on mRVL at 56.5.

Awful lot of grumbling for a market that was just consolidating. Nothing really has changed, just people's perceptions.

12/21/05

2005-12-20T20:33:00.000-08:00

Buying NOV and UBB at the open. Was stopped out of SNDK today, for a very quick tidy profit. If you look back, I said it was the best pattern I had seen in a long, long time

It is very easy to get hung up on the mechanics of trading. The shoulds and shouldn'ts, the emotion of it all. Thinking certain trades are taboo, or show weakness or lack of expereince. This is why mechanical systems were invented. To keep traders from dickering during losing streaks. Stick to the system and it will pull you through in the end. However, I know of no systems trader that still does not make judgement calls. They override their systerms, ignore trades, create new systems that tell them when to ignore their old systems and so on.

Rules are great for trading, they are a step down from the rigidity of systems, even so sometimes rules need to be broken. The successful trader has to have methods, but has have insight into them, their weaknesses and when they are not working. Thee are times when fading one's own rules is the absolutely best thing they can do. Do the opposite of what usually makes them successful.

I, for one find ignoring methods easier when taking profits, than cutting losses, and that is one thing I need to realize, admit and correct.

My next area of study will be in cutting losses earlier, rather than later. And how to do it.

As a side note, I find readership was highest when I expoused nothing but market opinion. I find that info. repeated all over the place. To improve one's trading you need to know how to trade, not what to do next.

Ending Losing Streaks

2005-12-19T19:14:00.000-08:00

Sold NT, raised stop-limit on SNDK to 58.

I learned a long time ago, when trying in vain to master golf, that sometimes the harder you smack the ball the worse your score becomes. When things get out of whack, you get back on the right track, by shortening your swing. Back to the basics, find your swing again in a nice short straight drive.

Trading is the same thing, the easiest way to end a losing streak is to take profits, even if they are small profits. Make things easier on yourself, you don't need a 300 yard drive on every swing. It is much better to keep your ball on the fairway.

Sometimes letting profits run gives you a straight 300 yard drive, but when your ball keeps going in the tall grass, it is time to shorten your swing. And take some easy trades that give you short quick profits. Hence the selling on UNH and NT.

After all we still have SNDK rolling straight down the middle of the fairway.

12/19/05

2005-12-18T09:48:00.000-08:00

Selling UNH at the open, moved stop-limit on SNDK to 56. And will be watching NT VERY closely.

DOW and Nasdaq-It does not take a genius to see this as a resistance level. Technically they look weak, and the entire market looks muddled. On the other hand we have the historically strong time of the year in the favor of the bulls.

ABX-Needs to rally right here.

ACL-New lows, lower highs. Basic charting 101 says the uptrend is over. Will dump on next rally strong company, with low volatility make this a low risk.

FD-Ex-dividend play, should rally somewhat.

GRMN-Encouraging.

KBH-Discouraging.

MRVL-Still looks vulnerable.

NT-LIke SNDK had a great short term pattern. Will dump on the first sing of weakness to lock in some profits.

OXY-Broke pattern, could test some lows.

SNDK-Tightened stops, probably not tight enough.

12/16/05

2005-12-15T15:56:00.000-08:00

A stop was placed on SNDK at 54. Nasdaq looks vulnerable, Dow looks healthier, not usually a good rally sign. Although there are interesting patterns out there.

12/15/05

2005-12-15T03:06:00.000-08:00

Buying NT at the open.

Bad Karma strikes hard.

2005-12-14T07:59:00.000-08:00

BXP was stopped out today.

Karma, your turn, whatever you want to call it. There are just some days, where for no reason every position you have performs more negatively than otherwise would be expected. Today was that day for me. ABX, ACL, tanked for no good reason, UNH did as well. MRVL, oh what to do with them, rallied, OXY is being as stubborn as a you know what in heat, KBH rallying? Who in the hell thinks buying home construction and oil is smart? Somebody with more dough than I have.

Took extra cash and made a huge dent in the mortgage, sometimes your money is best put elsewhere.

Why I hate stops

2005-12-13T16:05:00.000-08:00

BBY.
If you have been reading awhile, that is all you need to know. That and it tanked 11% today. To trade well you have to trade without fear, and with confidence, and, and the big one patience. It really seems to me classifying yourself as a day trader, swing trader etc, really says you don't like profits. I'll take profits whenever and however I can get them, a day, a month, a year, any profit is a good profit.

12/13/05

2005-12-12T19:45:00.000-08:00

We are buying SNDK at the open. We weren't really shopping, but the pattern was to die for, like shoes in the window. Seriously if you want to see the best buy pattern I have seen in months check it out.

In the 80's and 90's the Feds moves were bullish or bearish. Interest rates up, bearish, interest rates down, bullish. Now in further evidence of complicating the uncomplicated, we scrutinize the minutes and really don't seem to care about the actual rates.

We can never know the future, so we make it into whatever we want it to be, in the here and now. The market follows the same patterns it always has, only our explanations have changed.