Sunday, April 09, 2006

You will have to scan the 'current positions' post to see where we are as far as individual trades. Mostly short, predominantly short as a matter of fact. The sell off Friday was sharp, I am not seeing clear cut sings of a continuation Monday, but perhaps by Tuesday. Much of it may depend on early profit rumbles. Although I think until we see clear cut signs of the Fed's reversal of coarse, the highs we have seen lately are likely to stand put. Early April is very bullish in general, and May is bearish, followed by the usual lackluster summer. And then comes the fall sell-off before the winter rally into the new year. 2007 is nothing politically, Bush is done, so don't expect much in the way of tax cut legislation to boost the economy.

Wow, did he really off a whole year's prediction? Tear it up throw it away, nobody can predict tomorrow's weather with enough certainty to wager your hard earned deniro. A smart trader would have been much less invested in this market last two weeks than I was. I have had one speed lately and it is full bore balls to the wall, pedal to the medal. I learned around last Wednesday I was emotionally destroying myself and actually stopped watching the market with the vested interest of watching a loved ones EKG. I stayed tuned, but more or less stayed out.

Fridays sell off was large, there might be a bounce Monday.

Dow-Huge reversal day, on a failed rally. Looks bearish at least to touch the lower band, if it follows through from there, it could be a fairly large down turn ahead.

Nasdaq-Although technically the nasdaq is still hugging the upper band, one would have to be a moron to ignore the reversal day on Friday. Best prediction, tomorrow, an inside day with negative market internals, and then a continuation to the downside. Of course you know what I think about opinions and predictions. They are worthless at best and expensive at worst. All you can do is play the evidence right in front of you.

SOX-Nice rally, sometimes these formations are the start of something big, sometimes they are a last gasp. If you look there was a nice triple top going on, and this rally fell way short of that.

OSX-Given the nature of oil, so much of it is pure fundamental, and not as given to chart reading. However, it is showing a nice rally here. But showing some sings of retreating perhaps to the 20 day moving average.

XAU-See oil above.

Positions-

AKZOY-This long should show no more correction than here, or perhaps exiting is best bet.

AMAT-Reasonable to expect this short to revisit lower band.

ARLP-higher volume and a break out on a weak day, make this short a cove at 38+.

CCJ-Triple top failure, look for a lower band re-visit.

CVX-Overall trend really never budged, entered too early here, but should re-visit lower band.

FNM-One of the two profits open in the portfolio, should also re-visit lower band and then some.

HAWK-Could be new uptrend if it continues up from here, nice sell-off, but shows early rumblings of a new up leg.

MFE-If market continues to tank, this one will too.

MS-Look to at least moving average touch.

PD-New territory, might cover if it hits moving average.

RTP-See PD. This is why you do not short two stocks in one sector. DUH.

SNPS-Comfortable here, should tank some more.

SNE-Rallied on Japan and overall strength in sector, nothing spectacular, expect a lower band visit.

SPG-Not going to have much patience here. On this long.

TSN-Other open profit, see it heading lower.

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